Academy Sports Outdoors Stock Price Patterns
| ASO Stock | USD 58.77 0.01 0.02% |
Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.141 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8802 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.5184 | Wall Street Target Price 59.9444 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.0606 |
Using Academy Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Academy Sports Outdoors from the perspective of Academy Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Academy Sports using Academy Sports' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Academy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Academy Sports' stock price.
Academy Sports Short Interest
An investor who is long Academy Sports may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Academy Sports and may potentially protect profits, hedge Academy Sports with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 50.0545 | Short Percent 0.2385 | Short Ratio 5.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.9 M | 50 Day MA 55.5119 |
Academy Sports Outdoors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Academy Sports' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Academy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Academy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Academy Sports Outdoors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Academy Sports' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Academy Sports.
Academy Sports Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Academy Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Academy Sports Outdoors stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Academy Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Academy Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Academy Sports' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Academy Sports to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Academy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Academy Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 57.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Academy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Academy Sports Outdoors will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Academy Sports trading at USD 58.77, that is roughly USD 0.0246 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Academy Sports' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Academy Sports Outdoors options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Academy Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Academy Sports After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Academy Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Academy Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Academy Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Academy Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Academy Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Academy Sports' historical news coverage. Academy Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.19 and 60.75, respectively. We have considered Academy Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Academy Sports is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Academy Sports Outdoors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Academy Sports Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Academy Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Academy Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Academy Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 2.76 | 0.79 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.77 | 57.97 | 1.38 |
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Academy Sports Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of February Academy Sports Outdoors is traded for 58.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.79, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Academy is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 57.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 146.81%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.38%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Academy Sports is about 10615.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.76. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Academy Sports Outdoors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.59. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.44. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Academy Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Academy Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Academy Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Academy Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Academy Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Academy Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 9.34 | 13 per month | 1.49 | 0.09 | 3.85 | (2.66) | 8.17 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | 0.47 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.03 | (3.14) | 11.90 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | (7.08) | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.16 | 2.70 | (2.03) | 9.89 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.65) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.24 | (1.86) | 18.28 | |
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.80 | (3.05) | 7.86 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 2.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.61 | (3.29) | 10.22 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | (2.63) | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.09 | 5.00 | (2.19) | 9.97 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | (4.65) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.42 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | 0.57 | 8 per month | 1.36 | (0.04) | 3.00 | (1.73) | 9.96 | |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 2.31 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.16 | 3.39 | (2.67) | 8.67 |
Academy Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Academy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Academy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Academy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Academy Sports Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Academy Sports stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Academy Sports Outdoors, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Academy Sports based on analysis of Academy Sports hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Academy Sports's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Academy Sports's related companies. | 2010 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008431 | 0.13 | 0.14 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.63 | 0.24 | 0.37 |
Pair Trading with Academy Sports
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Academy Sports position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Academy Sports will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Academy Stock
| 0.75 | FTEL | Fitell Ordinary | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | G2M | Beijing Jingkelong | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | 7G9 | PETCO HEALTH CLA | PairCorr |
| 0.31 | WOOF | Pet Acquisition LLC | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Academy Sports could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Academy Sports when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Academy Sports - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Academy Sports Outdoors to buy it.
The correlation of Academy Sports is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Academy Sports moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Academy Sports Outdoors moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Academy Sports can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Academy Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Will Other Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Academy diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Academy Sports data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.141 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 5.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
Investors evaluate Academy Sports Outdoors using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Academy Sports' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Academy Sports' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Academy Sports' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Academy Sports represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Academy Sports' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.