Alibaba Group Holding Stock Price Patterns
| BABA Stock | USD 174.25 4.69 2.77% |
Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 15.3092 | EPS Estimate Current Year 44.0555 | EPS Estimate Next Year 61.9651 | Wall Street Target Price 196.7845 |
Using Alibaba Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding from the perspective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alibaba Group using Alibaba Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alibaba using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alibaba Group's stock price.
Alibaba Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alibaba Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alibaba. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alibaba Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 141.2432 | Short Percent 0.0225 | Short Ratio 3.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 43.6 M | 50 Day MA 158.4098 |
Alibaba Group Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alibaba Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alibaba. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alibaba can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alibaba Group Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alibaba Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alibaba Group.
Alibaba Group Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
Alibaba Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alibaba Group Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alibaba Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alibaba Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alibaba Group's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alibaba Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alibaba because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alibaba Group after-hype prediction price | USD 174.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alibaba contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alibaba Group Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0363% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alibaba Group trading at USD 174.25, that is roughly USD 0.0632 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alibaba Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alibaba Group Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Alibaba Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alibaba Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alibaba Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alibaba Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alibaba Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alibaba Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alibaba Group's historical news coverage. Alibaba Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 171.60 and 176.90, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alibaba Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alibaba Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alibaba Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alibaba Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alibaba Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alibaba Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.65 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
174.25 | 174.25 | 0.00 |
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Alibaba Group Hype Timeline
Alibaba Group Holding is currently traded for 174.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Alibaba is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 167.72%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alibaba Group is about 383.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 174.32. The book value of the company was currently reported as 64.02. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.24. Alibaba Group Holding recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Alibaba Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alibaba Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alibaba Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alibaba Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Alibaba Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alibaba Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HD | The Home Depot | 1.53 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.01 | (2.00) | 7.27 | |
| PDD | PDD Holdings | 1.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.84 | (3.98) | 10.17 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | (2.94) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.63 | (3.25) | 17.48 | |
| TM | Toyota Motor | (0.53) | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.06 | 3.21 | (2.33) | 8.06 | |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | 0.18 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.52 | (3.55) | 12.41 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.30) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.89 | (2.77) | 7.60 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | (0.94) | 8 per month | 1.24 | 0.14 | 2.71 | (2.29) | 16.26 | |
| MNSO | Miniso Group Holding | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.27 | (3.58) | 9.84 | |
| CART | Maplebear | (0.19) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.91 | (3.87) | 11.01 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 9.13 | 10 per month | 1.74 | 0.05 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 |
Alibaba Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alibaba price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alibaba using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alibaba charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alibaba Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alibaba Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alibaba Group Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alibaba Group based on analysis of Alibaba Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alibaba Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alibaba Group's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0131 | 2.67E-4 | 2.54E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.25 | 576.76 | 414.4 |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Complementary Tools for Alibaba Stock analysis
When running Alibaba Group's price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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