Bavarian Nordic As Stock Price Prediction
| BVNRY Stock | USD 9.10 0.11 1.22% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
21
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bavarian Nordic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bavarian Nordic AS from the perspective of Bavarian Nordic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Bavarian Nordic to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Bavarian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Bavarian Nordic after-hype prediction price | USD 9.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bavarian |
Bavarian Nordic After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bavarian Nordic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bavarian Nordic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Bavarian Nordic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bavarian Nordic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bavarian Nordic's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bavarian Nordic's historical news coverage. Bavarian Nordic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.14 and 12.06, respectively. We have considered Bavarian Nordic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bavarian Nordic is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bavarian Nordic AS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bavarian Nordic Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bavarian Nordic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bavarian Nordic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bavarian Nordic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 2.96 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.10 | 9.10 | 0.00 |
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Bavarian Nordic Hype Timeline
Bavarian Nordic AS is currently traded for 9.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.47. Bavarian is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.47%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bavarian Nordic is about 298.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.57. The book value of the company was currently reported as 38.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.44. Bavarian Nordic AS last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The entity had 3:1 split on the 20th of January 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Bavarian Nordic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Bavarian Nordic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bavarian Nordic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. Getting to know how Bavarian Nordic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bavarian Nordic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RIGL | Rigel Pharmaceuticals | 5.42 | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.18 | 9.10 | (4.39) | 55.18 | |
| GERN | Geron | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.17 | (4.13) | 14.00 | |
| VSTM | Verastem | (0.50) | 10 per month | 4.51 | 0.20 | 12.84 | (5.69) | 31.27 | |
| IMMP | Immutep Ltd ADR | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.89 | (5.56) | 18.55 | |
| ELEV | Elevation Oncology | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.77 | (8.22) | 22.21 |
Bavarian Nordic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bavarian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bavarian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bavarian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Bavarian Nordic Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Bavarian Nordic stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Bavarian Nordic AS, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Bavarian Nordic based on analysis of Bavarian Nordic hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Bavarian Nordic's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Bavarian Nordic's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Bavarian Nordic
The number of cover stories for Bavarian Nordic depends on current market conditions and Bavarian Nordic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bavarian Nordic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bavarian Nordic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bavarian Nordic Short Properties
Bavarian Nordic's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bavarian Nordic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bavarian Nordic AS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bavarian Nordic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bavarian Nordic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Additional Tools for Bavarian Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Bavarian Nordic's price analysis, check to measure Bavarian Nordic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bavarian Nordic is operating at the current time. Most of Bavarian Nordic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bavarian Nordic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bavarian Nordic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.