Avis Budget Group Stock Price Prediction
| CAR Stock | USD 99.06 1.00 1.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
61
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.72 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0928 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.0147 | Wall Street Target Price 122.25 |
Using Avis Budget hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avis Budget Group from the perspective of Avis Budget response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Avis Budget Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Avis Budget's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Avis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Avis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Avis Budget Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Avis Budget's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Avis Budget.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Avis Budget to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Avis because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Avis Budget after-hype prediction price | USD 99.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Avis |
Avis Budget After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avis Budget at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avis Budget or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avis Budget, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avis Budget Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avis Budget's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avis Budget's historical news coverage. Avis Budget's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.32 and 102.80, respectively. We have considered Avis Budget's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avis Budget is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avis Budget Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avis Budget Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avis Budget is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avis Budget backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avis Budget, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 3.74 | 1.53 | 0.36 | 6 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
99.06 | 99.06 | 0.00 |
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Avis Budget Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Avis Budget Group is traded for 99.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.53, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.36. Avis is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 58.62%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Avis Budget is about 251.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.70. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. Avis Budget Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of December 2023. The firm had 1:10 split on the 5th of September 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Avis Budget Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Avis Budget Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avis Budget's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avis Budget's future price movements. Getting to know how Avis Budget's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avis Budget may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HTZWW | Hertz Global Hldgs | 0.09 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.22 | (6.57) | 17.18 | |
| R | Ryder System | (3.05) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.08 | 3.32 | (2.64) | 7.72 | |
| HEES | HE Equipment Services | 0.46 | 8 per month | 2.06 | 0.09 | 3.36 | (3.22) | 15.53 | |
| URI | United Rentals | (16.29) | 10 per month | 1.24 | 0.07 | 2.67 | (2.03) | 12.35 | |
| HRI | Herc Holdings | (1.67) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.20 | 6.47 | (2.36) | 20.05 | |
| UHAL | U Haul Holding | 1.55 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.28 | (2.22) | 6.88 | |
| AL | Air Lease | 0.38 | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 2.92 | (2.41) | 7.58 | |
| AAN | The Aarons | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.24 | (0.20) | 0.61 | (0.40) | 1.81 | |
| TRTN | Triton International Group | 0.07 | 1 per month | 0.37 | (0.17) | 0.73 | (0.63) | 2.44 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 3.17 | 10 per month | 0.92 | 0.06 | 2.79 | (1.44) | 8.69 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | (2.96) | 7 per month | 1.55 | 0.04 | 3.07 | (3.05) | 11.62 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.43 | 9 per month | 3.67 | 0.06 | 6.88 | (5.48) | 25.52 |
Avis Budget Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Avis Budget Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Avis Budget stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Avis Budget Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Avis Budget based on analysis of Avis Budget hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Avis Budget's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Avis Budget's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0601 | 0.0571 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.57 | 0.34 |
Story Coverage note for Avis Budget
The number of cover stories for Avis Budget depends on current market conditions and Avis Budget's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avis Budget is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avis Budget's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Avis Budget Short Properties
Avis Budget's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avis Budget's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avis Budget Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avis Budget's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avis Budget's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 555 M |
Additional Tools for Avis Stock Analysis
When running Avis Budget's price analysis, check to measure Avis Budget's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avis Budget is operating at the current time. Most of Avis Budget's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avis Budget's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avis Budget's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avis Budget to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.