Alaska Air Group Stock Price Prediction

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 47.18 54.50 56.55 Details

Naive Forecast Low Next High 49.52 51.57 53.62 Details

15 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 46.94 51.58 57.25 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 1.04 0.61 1.10 Details

Alaska Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Alaska Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Alaska Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Expected Return	Period Volatility	Hype Elasticity	Related Elasticity	News Density	Related Density	Expected Hype
0.62	2.07	0.03	0.02	10 Events / Month	8 Events / Month	In about 10 days

Latest traded price	Expected after-news price	Potential return on next major news	Average after-hype volatility
52.42	52.39	0.06	4,140   Notes

Alaska Air Hype Timeline

On the 25th of November Alaska Air Group is traded for 52.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Alaska is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 52.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Alaska Air is about 6210.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.44. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alaska Air Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alaska Air Related Hype Analysis

Alaska Air Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alaska price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alaska using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alaska charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

The successful prediction of Alaska Air stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alaska Air Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air based on analysis of Alaska Air hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

The number of cover stories for Alaska Air depends on current market conditions and Alaska Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alaska Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alaska Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alaska Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alaska Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alaska Air Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.