Cogent Communications Group Stock Price Prediction
| CCOI Stock | USD 74.85 0.36 0.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
40
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 228.092 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.14) | EPS Estimate Current Year (5.25) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.75) | Wall Street Target Price 82.0909 |
Using Cogent Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cogent Communications Group from the perspective of Cogent Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cogent Communications using Cogent Communications' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cogent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cogent Communications' stock price.
Cogent Communications Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Cogent Communications' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Cogent. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Cogent Communications stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 70.1128 | Short Percent 0.1205 | Short Ratio 8.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.6 M | 50 Day MA 76.8248 |
Cogent Communications Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cogent Communications' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cogent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cogent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cogent Communications Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cogent Communications' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cogent Communications.
Cogent Communications Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Cogent Communications' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cogent Communications Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cogent Communications' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cogent Communications stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cogent Communications' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cogent Communications to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cogent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cogent Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 75.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cogent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cogent Communications Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Cogent Communications trading at USD 74.85, that is roughly USD 0.0243 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cogent Communications' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cogent Communications Group options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Cogent |
Cogent Communications After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cogent Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cogent Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cogent Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cogent Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cogent Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cogent Communications' historical news coverage. Cogent Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.44 and 76.74, respectively. We have considered Cogent Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cogent Communications is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cogent Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cogent Communications Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cogent Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cogent Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cogent Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.63 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
74.85 | 75.09 | 0.35 |
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Cogent Communications Hype Timeline
Cogent Communications is currently traded for 74.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Cogent is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 75.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 76.17%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Cogent Communications is about 915.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 74.83. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 940.92 M. Net Income was 1.27 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 394.76 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Cogent Communications Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cogent Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cogent Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cogent Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Cogent Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cogent Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Cogent Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cogent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cogent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cogent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Cogent Communications Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cogent Communications stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cogent Communications Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cogent Communications based on analysis of Cogent Communications hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cogent Communications's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cogent Communications's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0635 | 0.0504 | 0.0454 | 0.0314 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.46 | 3.83 | 3.45 | 2.89 |
Story Coverage note for Cogent Communications
The number of cover stories for Cogent Communications depends on current market conditions and Cogent Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cogent Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cogent Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Cogent Communications Short Properties
Cogent Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cogent Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cogent Communications Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cogent Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.1 M |
Complementary Tools for Cogent Stock analysis
When running Cogent Communications' price analysis, check to measure Cogent Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogent Communications is operating at the current time. Most of Cogent Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogent Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogent Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogent Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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