Choice Hotels International Stock Price Prediction
| CHH Stock | USD 147.39 0.09 0.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.227 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.8036 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.9658 | Wall Street Target Price 133.8875 |
Using Choice Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Choice Hotels International from the perspective of Choice Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Choice Hotels using Choice Hotels' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Choice using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Choice Hotels' stock price.
Choice Hotels Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Choice Hotels' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Choice. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Choice Hotels stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 129.7781 | Short Percent 0.342 | Short Ratio 17 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.8 M | 50 Day MA 144.9448 |
Choice Hotels Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Choice Hotels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Choice. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Choice can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Choice Hotels International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Choice Hotels' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Choice Hotels.
Choice Hotels Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Choice Hotels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Choice Hotels International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Choice Hotels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Choice Hotels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Choice Hotels' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Choice Hotels to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Choice because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Choice Hotels after-hype prediction price | USD 147.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Choice contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Choice Hotels International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Choice Hotels trading at USD 147.39, that is roughly USD 0.0461 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Choice Hotels' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Choice Hotels International options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Choice |
Choice Hotels After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Choice Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Choice Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Choice Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Choice Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Choice Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Choice Hotels' historical news coverage. Choice Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 146.53 and 148.77, respectively. We have considered Choice Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Choice Hotels is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Choice Hotels Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Choice Hotels Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Choice Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Choice Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Choice Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.12 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
147.39 | 147.65 | 0.24 |
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Choice Hotels Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Choice Hotels Intern is traded for 147.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Choice is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 147.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 35.44%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Choice Hotels is about 665.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 147.37. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.54 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 258.51 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 699.09 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Choice Hotels Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Choice Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Choice Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Choice Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Choice Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Choice Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| H | Hyatt Hotels | 0.03 | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.01 | 2.61 | (2.98) | 11.01 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | (5.07) | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.04 | 1.49 | (1.30) | 7.85 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | (1.26) | 9 per month | 0.53 | 0.18 | 1.87 | (1.20) | 7.04 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | 3.43 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 1.66 | (1.60) | 10.47 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | 1.85 | 7 per month | 0.76 | 0.17 | 2.38 | (1.44) | 15.27 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.19 | (3.58) | 18.83 |
Choice Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Choice price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Choice using various technical indicators. When you analyze Choice charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Choice Hotels Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Choice Hotels stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Choice Hotels International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Choice Hotels based on analysis of Choice Hotels hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Choice Hotels's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Choice Hotels's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008544 | 0.009898 | 0.0108 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.39 | 3.69 | 3.5 |
Story Coverage note for Choice Hotels
The number of cover stories for Choice Hotels depends on current market conditions and Choice Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Choice Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Choice Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Choice Hotels Short Properties
Choice Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Choice Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Choice Hotels International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Choice Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Choice Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Choice Stock analysis
When running Choice Hotels' price analysis, check to measure Choice Hotels' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Choice Hotels is operating at the current time. Most of Choice Hotels' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Choice Hotels' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Choice Hotels' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Choice Hotels to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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