Cto Realty Growth Stock Price Prediction
| CTO Stock | USD 17.74 0.02 0.11% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.145 | Wall Street Target Price 20.8 |
Using CTO Realty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CTO Realty Growth from the perspective of CTO Realty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CTO Realty using CTO Realty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CTO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CTO Realty's stock price.
CTO Realty Short Interest
An investor who is long CTO Realty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CTO Realty and may potentially protect profits, hedge CTO Realty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.3833 | Short Percent 0.0491 | Short Ratio 4.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 17.9634 |
CTO Realty Growth Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CTO Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CTO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CTO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CTO Realty Growth. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CTO Realty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CTO Realty.
CTO Realty Implied Volatility | 0.89 |
CTO Realty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CTO Realty Growth stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CTO Realty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CTO Realty stock will not fluctuate a lot when CTO Realty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CTO Realty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CTO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CTO Realty after-hype prediction price | USD 17.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CTO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CTO Realty Growth will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0556% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With CTO Realty trading at USD 17.74, that is roughly USD 0.009868 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CTO Realty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CTO Realty Growth options at the current volatility level of 0.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out CTO Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CTO Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CTO Realty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CTO Realty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CTO Realty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CTO Realty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CTO Realty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CTO Realty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CTO Realty's historical news coverage. CTO Realty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.74 and 18.86, respectively. We have considered CTO Realty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CTO Realty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CTO Realty Growth is based on 3 months time horizon.
CTO Realty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CTO Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CTO Realty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CTO Realty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.74 | 17.80 | 0.23 |
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CTO Realty Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January CTO Realty Growth is traded for 17.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. CTO is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on CTO Realty is about 2000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.75. The company reported the last year's revenue of 124.52 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.97 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 110.15 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out CTO Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CTO Realty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CTO Realty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CTO Realty's future price movements. Getting to know how CTO Realty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CTO Realty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.05 | 2.95 | (2.35) | 12.25 | |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial | 0.13 | 10 per month | 1.65 | (0.03) | 2.31 | (1.98) | 7.41 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.17 | 9 per month | 1.58 | (0) | 3.16 | (2.97) | 7.04 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.75 | 0.21 | 2.36 | (1.78) | 8.01 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.1) | 10 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.01 | (5.50) | 17.41 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| BFS | Saul Centers | (0.28) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.01 | 1.71 | (1.72) | 4.95 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.48 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.04 | 2.05 | (2.05) | 6.30 |
CTO Realty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CTO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CTO using various technical indicators. When you analyze CTO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CTO Realty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CTO Realty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CTO Realty Growth, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CTO Realty based on analysis of CTO Realty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CTO Realty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CTO Realty's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.1 | 0.0942 | 0.0848 | 0.089 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.58 | 4.01 | 3.61 | 4.8 |
Pair Trading with CTO Realty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CTO Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CTO Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with CTO Stock
| 0.66 | AIV | Apartment Investment and | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | CPT | Camden Property Trust Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | IRT | Independence Realty Trust | PairCorr |
Moving against CTO Stock
| 0.9 | OPINL | Office Properties Income | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | NIO | Nio Class A | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | GRAB | Grab Holdings Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | PLUG | Plug Power | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | NVDA | NVIDIA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CTO Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CTO Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CTO Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CTO Realty Growth to buy it.
The correlation of CTO Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CTO Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CTO Realty Growth moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CTO Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out CTO Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CTO Realty. If investors know CTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CTO Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share (1.44) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
The market value of CTO Realty Growth is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CTO Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CTO Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CTO Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CTO Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CTO Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CTO Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CTO Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.