CTO Realty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CTO Stock | USD 17.94 0.20 1.10% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CTO Realty Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32. CTO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although CTO Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CTO Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CTO Realty fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of CTO Realty's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CTO Realty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.145 | Wall Street Target Price 20.8 |
Using CTO Realty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CTO Realty Growth from the perspective of CTO Realty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CTO Realty using CTO Realty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CTO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CTO Realty's stock price.
CTO Realty Short Interest
An investor who is long CTO Realty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about CTO Realty and may potentially protect profits, hedge CTO Realty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.3808 | Short Percent 0.0491 | Short Ratio 4.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 17.9368 |
CTO Realty Growth Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CTO Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CTO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CTO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CTO Realty Growth. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CTO Realty Implied Volatility | 0.91 |
CTO Realty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CTO Realty Growth stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CTO Realty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CTO Realty stock will not fluctuate a lot when CTO Realty's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CTO Realty Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32. CTO Realty after-hype prediction price | USD 17.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CTO Realty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CTO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CTO Realty Growth will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0569% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With CTO Realty trading at USD 17.94, that is roughly USD 0.0102 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CTO Realty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CTO Realty Growth options at the current volatility level of 0.91%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 CTO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CTO Realty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CTO Realty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CTO Realty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CTO Realty's open interest, investors have to compare it to CTO Realty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CTO Realty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CTO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
CTO Realty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CTO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CTO using various technical indicators. When you analyze CTO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CTO Realty Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the CTO Realty's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 8.6 M | Current Value 9.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 5 M |
CTO Realty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CTO Realty Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CTO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CTO Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CTO Realty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CTO Realty | CTO Realty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CTO Realty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CTO Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CTO Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.78 and 18.88, respectively. We have considered CTO Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CTO Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CTO Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4757 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0077 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.3207 |
Predictive Modules for CTO Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CTO Realty Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CTO Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CTO Realty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CTO Realty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CTO Realty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CTO Realty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CTO Realty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CTO Realty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CTO Realty's historical news coverage. CTO Realty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.90 and 18.98, respectively. We have considered CTO Realty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CTO Realty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CTO Realty Growth is based on 3 months time horizon.
CTO Realty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CTO Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CTO Realty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CTO Realty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.05 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.94 | 17.94 | 0.00 |
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CTO Realty Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January CTO Realty Growth is traded for 17.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. CTO is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on CTO Realty is about 1875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.95. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.04. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CTO Realty Growth recorded a loss per share of 1.44. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of December 2025. The firm had 3:1 split on the 1st of July 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CTO Realty to cross-verify your projections.CTO Realty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CTO Realty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CTO Realty's future price movements. Getting to know how CTO Realty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CTO Realty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | 0.09 | 5 per month | 1.56 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.35) | 12.25 | |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial | 0.13 | 9 per month | 1.64 | (0.04) | 2.29 | (2.03) | 7.33 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.23 | 15 per month | 1.58 | 0.01 | 3.16 | (2.97) | 7.04 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.38 | 8 per month | 0.77 | 0.21 | 2.47 | (1.86) | 8.03 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.21) | 7 per month | 1.01 | (0.03) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.01 | (5.50) | 17.41 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| BFS | Saul Centers | 0.23 | 18 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 1.71 | (1.72) | 4.95 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.07 | 0.05 | 2.05 | (2.05) | 6.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for CTO Realty
For every potential investor in CTO, whether a beginner or expert, CTO Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CTO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CTO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CTO Realty's price trends.CTO Realty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CTO Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CTO Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CTO Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CTO Realty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CTO Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CTO Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CTO Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CTO Realty Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6099.04 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.56 |
CTO Realty Risk Indicators
The analysis of CTO Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CTO Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8339 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7598 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5773 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CTO Realty
The number of cover stories for CTO Realty depends on current market conditions and CTO Realty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CTO Realty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CTO Realty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
CTO Realty Short Properties
CTO Realty's future price predictability will typically decrease when CTO Realty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CTO Realty Growth often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CTO Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CTO Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CTO Realty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CTO Realty. If investors know CTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CTO Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share (1.44) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
The market value of CTO Realty Growth is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CTO Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CTO Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CTO Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CTO Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CTO Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CTO Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CTO Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.