Elanco Animal Health Stock Price Prediction
| ELAN Stock | USD 13.40 0.04 0.30% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9231 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9317 | Wall Street Target Price 17.8418 |
Using Elanco Animal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elanco Animal Health from the perspective of Elanco Animal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Elanco Animal Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elanco Animal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elanco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elanco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elanco Animal Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Elanco Animal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Elanco Animal.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Elanco Animal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Elanco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Elanco Animal after-hype prediction price | USD 13.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Elanco |
Elanco Animal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elanco Animal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elanco Animal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elanco Animal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elanco Animal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elanco Animal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elanco Animal's historical news coverage. Elanco Animal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.81 and 15.99, respectively. We have considered Elanco Animal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elanco Animal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elanco Animal Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elanco Animal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elanco Animal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elanco Animal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elanco Animal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.59 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.40 | 13.40 | 0.00 |
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Elanco Animal Hype Timeline
Elanco Animal Health is currently traded for 13.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Elanco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Elanco Animal is about 13759.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.40. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Elanco Animal Health has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.84. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Elanco Animal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Elanco Animal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elanco Animal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elanco Animal's future price movements. Getting to know how Elanco Animal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elanco Animal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Elanco Animal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elanco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elanco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elanco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Elanco Animal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Elanco Animal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Elanco Animal Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Elanco Animal based on analysis of Elanco Animal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Elanco Animal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Elanco Animal's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 78.75 | 82.78 | 83.46 | 71.03 | PTB Ratio | 1.83 | 0.82 | 1.18 | 1.76 |
Story Coverage note for Elanco Animal
The number of cover stories for Elanco Animal depends on current market conditions and Elanco Animal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elanco Animal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elanco Animal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elanco Animal Short Properties
Elanco Animal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Elanco Animal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elanco Animal Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elanco Animal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elanco Animal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 492.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 352 M |
Check out Elanco Animal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elanco Animal. If investors know Elanco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elanco Animal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | Earnings Share 0.41 | Revenue Per Share 9.023 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.0118 |
The market value of Elanco Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elanco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elanco Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elanco Animal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elanco Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elanco Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elanco Animal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elanco Animal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elanco Animal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.