National Vision Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| EYE Stock | USD 11.63 0.16 1.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.5236 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5305 | Wall Street Target Price 13.5 |
Using National Vision hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Vision Holdings from the perspective of National Vision response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Vision using National Vision's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Vision's stock price.
National Vision Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in National Vision's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards National. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of National Vision stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.5012 | Short Percent 0.0946 | Short Ratio 3.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 11.2191 |
National Vision Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to National Vision's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Vision Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of National Vision's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about National Vision.
National Vision Implied Volatility | 1.32 |
National Vision's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Vision Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Vision's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Vision stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Vision's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National Vision to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
National Vision after-hype prediction price | USD 11.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Vision Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0825% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With National Vision trading at USD 11.63, that is roughly USD 0.009595 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Vision's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Vision Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
National |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Vision After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Vision at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Vision or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Vision, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Vision Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Vision's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Vision's historical news coverage. National Vision's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.03 and 14.33, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Vision is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Vision Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Vision Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Vision is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Vision backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Vision, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.64 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.63 | 11.68 | 0.26 |
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National Vision Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January National Vision Holdings is traded for 11.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. National is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.68. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on National Vision is about 253.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.48. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. National Vision Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.04. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out National Vision Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.National Vision Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Vision's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Vision's future price movements. Getting to know how National Vision's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Vision may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | (0.20) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.50 | (3.63) | 17.73 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | (0.80) | 7 per month | 2.50 | (0.01) | 6.08 | (4.69) | 21.26 | |
| SPWH | Sportsmans | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.09 | (6.69) | 25.49 | |
| FLWS | 1 800 FLOWERSCOM | (0.08) | 9 per month | 2.79 | 0.03 | 5.39 | (4.77) | 13.29 | |
| LESL | Leslies | 0.06 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.42 | (6.11) | 41.35 | |
| ODP | ODP Corp | 0.24 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.25 | (5.88) | 14.90 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | (2.78) | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.03 | 2.76 | (1.88) | 7.77 | |
| MUSA | Murphy USA | (0.96) | 10 per month | 1.13 | (0.01) | 2.51 | (1.63) | 7.49 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 0.52 | 10 per month | 1.19 | (0.04) | 2.48 | (2.35) | 8.18 | |
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | (6.32) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.03 | 1.88 | (1.59) | 7.97 |
National Vision Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About National Vision Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of National Vision stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National Vision Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Vision based on analysis of National Vision hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National Vision's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National Vision's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0833 | 0.0785 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.77 | 1.76 |
Story Coverage note for National Vision
The number of cover stories for National Vision depends on current market conditions and National Vision's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Vision is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Vision's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Vision Short Properties
National Vision's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Vision's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Vision Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Vision's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Vision's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 149.9 M |
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Vision's price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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