First National Financial Stock Price Prediction
| FN Stock | CAD 44.87 0.34 0.76% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
78
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.85 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4 | Wall Street Target Price 43.4 |
Using First National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First National Financial from the perspective of First National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First National after-hype prediction price | CAD 44.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First National's historical news coverage. First National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.10 and 45.84, respectively. We have considered First National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First National Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
First National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 0.87 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.87 | 44.97 | 0.22 |
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First National Hype Timeline
First National Financial is currently traded for 44.87on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. First is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on First National is about 1891.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.86. The company reported the revenue of 2.07 B. Net Income was 252.81 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 525.7 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out First National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First National's future price movements. Getting to know how First National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EIF | Exchange Income | (0.41) | 4 per month | 0.62 | 0.11 | 1.99 | (1.40) | 5.82 | |
| AI | Atrium Mortgage Investment | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.67 | (0.16) | 1.00 | (0.88) | 4.77 | |
| EQB | Equitable Group | 0.23 | 1 per month | 0.75 | 0.10 | 2.31 | (1.47) | 5.70 | |
| TF | Timbercreek Financial Corp | (0.07) | 2 per month | 1.42 | (0.08) | 1.43 | (1.23) | 9.79 | |
| FSZ | Fiera Capital | 0.06 | 4 per month | 2.06 | 0.14 | 3.06 | (2.16) | 21.83 |
First National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First National Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First National based on analysis of First National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0852 | 0.0659 | 0.0838 | 0.0612 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.85 | 3.12 | 3.06 | 2.91 |
Story Coverage note for First National
The number of cover stories for First National depends on current market conditions and First National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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First National Short Properties
First National's future price predictability will typically decrease when First National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First National Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 702.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in First Stock
First National financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First National security.