Vaneck Junior Gold Etf Price Patterns
| GDXJ Etf | USD 128.56 7.39 6.10% |
Momentum 80
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Junior hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Junior Gold from the perspective of VanEck Junior response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards VanEck Junior using VanEck Junior's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards VanEck using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of VanEck Junior's stock price.
VanEck Junior Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
VanEck Junior's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of VanEck Junior Gold stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if VanEck Junior's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that VanEck Junior stock will not fluctuate a lot when VanEck Junior's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in VanEck Junior to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying VanEck because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
VanEck Junior after-hype prediction price | USD 128.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current VanEck contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that VanEck Junior Gold will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With VanEck Junior trading at USD 128.56, that is roughly USD 0.049 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating VanEck Junior's daily price movement you should consider acquiring VanEck Junior Gold options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out VanEck Junior Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Junior's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck Junior After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Junior at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Junior or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Junior, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Junior Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VanEck Junior's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VanEck Junior's historical news coverage. VanEck Junior's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.77 and 131.41, respectively. We have considered VanEck Junior's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VanEck Junior is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VanEck Junior Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
VanEck Junior Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Junior is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Junior backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Junior, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 3.32 | 0.47 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
128.56 | 128.09 | 0.37 |
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VanEck Junior Hype Timeline
VanEck Junior Gold is currently traded for 128.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. VanEck is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 128.09. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Junior is about 3161.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 128.62. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.09. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out VanEck Junior Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.VanEck Junior Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Junior's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Junior's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Junior's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Junior may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDVV | Fidelity High Dividend | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.46 | 0.04 | 0.91 | (1.04) | 2.74 | |
| JQUA | JPMorgan Quality Factor | 0.20 | 27 per month | 0.63 | (0.06) | 1.12 | (1.13) | 3.02 | |
| VIS | Vanguard Industrials Index | (1.47) | 4 per month | 0.86 | 0.09 | 1.74 | (1.77) | 4.10 | |
| SPLV | Invesco SP 500 | (0.66) | 6 per month | 0.33 | 0.03 | 1.06 | (0.89) | 2.40 | |
| CGUS | Capital Group Core | (0.44) | 5 per month | 0.86 | (0.08) | 1.22 | (1.36) | 3.90 | |
| VCR | Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 2.58 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.81 | (2.24) | 5.00 | |
| VCDAX | Vanguard Sumer Discretionary | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.82 | (2.22) | 4.96 | |
| SPYD | SPDR Portfolio SP | 0.25 | 5 per month | 0.28 | 0.12 | 1.39 | (0.99) | 3.40 | |
| RWL | Invesco SP 500 | 0.15 | 5 per month | 0.42 | 0.05 | 1.24 | (0.91) | 2.96 | |
| EWY | iShares MSCI South | 0.50 | 6 per month | 1.51 | 0.14 | 4.22 | (2.41) | 8.41 |
VanEck Junior Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About VanEck Junior Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of VanEck Junior stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as VanEck Junior Gold, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of VanEck Junior based on analysis of VanEck Junior hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to VanEck Junior's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to VanEck Junior's related companies.
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The market value of VanEck Junior Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Junior's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Junior's true underlying value. Investment professionals apply varied valuation frameworks to compute inherent worth and acquire positions when market prices trade at discounts to calculated value. Because VanEck Junior's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Junior's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Junior's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Junior is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, VanEck Junior's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.