Harmony Gold Mining Stock Price Prediction
| HGMCF Stock | USD 9.50 2.52 20.97% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
86
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Harmony Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harmony Gold Mining from the perspective of Harmony Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Harmony Gold to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Harmony because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Harmony Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 9.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Harmony |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harmony Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Harmony Gold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Harmony Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harmony Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Harmony Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Harmony Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Harmony Gold's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harmony Gold's historical news coverage. Harmony Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.91 and 13.09, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Harmony Gold is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harmony Gold Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Harmony Gold Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harmony Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harmony Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harmony Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.59 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.50 | 9.50 | 0.00 |
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Harmony Gold Hype Timeline
Harmony Gold Mining is currently traded for 9.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Harmony is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Harmony Gold is about 4582.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.51. About 12.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Harmony Gold Mining last dividend was issued on the 13th of October 2022. The entity had 100:1 split on the 15th of June 1998. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Harmony Gold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Harmony Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Harmony Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harmony Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Harmony Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harmony Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVNT | Avient Corp | (1.11) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.02 | 2.92 | (2.41) | 7.68 | |
| EGO | Eldorado Gold Corp | 0.45 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.39 | (5.22) | 12.12 | |
| NB | NioCorp Developments Ltd | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.33 | (8.00) | 28.43 | |
| GZITF | Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure | (0.23) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.67 | |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings | 1.06 | 12 per month | 1.77 | 0.01 | 2.17 | (2.22) | 6.82 | |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corp | 0.31 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.85 | (3.64) | 9.58 |
Harmony Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Harmony price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harmony using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harmony charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Harmony Gold Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Harmony Gold stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Harmony Gold Mining, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Harmony Gold based on analysis of Harmony Gold hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Harmony Gold's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Harmony Gold's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Harmony Gold
The number of cover stories for Harmony Gold depends on current market conditions and Harmony Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harmony Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harmony Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Harmony Gold Short Properties
Harmony Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harmony Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harmony Gold Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harmony Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harmony Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 616.5 M |
Complementary Tools for Harmony Pink Sheet analysis
When running Harmony Gold's price analysis, check to measure Harmony Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harmony Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Harmony Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harmony Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harmony Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harmony Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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