Lithia Motors Stock Price Prediction
| LAD Stock | USD 382.58 10.78 2.90% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.91 | EPS Estimate Current Year 29.3271 | EPS Estimate Next Year 35.1976 | Wall Street Target Price 400.1875 |
Using Lithia Motors hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lithia Motors from the perspective of Lithia Motors response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lithia Motors using Lithia Motors' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lithia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lithia Motors' stock price.
Lithia Motors Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lithia Motors' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lithia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lithia Motors stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 303.5375 | Short Percent 0.086 | Short Ratio 7.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 366.6596 |
Lithia Motors Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lithia Motors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lithia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lithia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lithia Motors. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lithia Motors' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lithia Motors.
Lithia Motors Implied Volatility | 0.54 |
Lithia Motors' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lithia Motors stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lithia Motors' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lithia Motors stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lithia Motors' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lithia Motors to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lithia because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lithia Motors after-hype prediction price | USD 371.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lithia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lithia Motors will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0338% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Lithia Motors trading at USD 382.58, that is roughly USD 0.13 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lithia Motors' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lithia Motors options at the current volatility level of 0.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lithia |
Lithia Motors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lithia Motors at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lithia Motors or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lithia Motors, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lithia Motors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lithia Motors' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lithia Motors' historical news coverage. Lithia Motors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 369.49 and 372.85, respectively. We have considered Lithia Motors' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lithia Motors is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lithia Motors is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lithia Motors Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lithia Motors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lithia Motors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lithia Motors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.68 | 0.63 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
382.58 | 371.17 | 0.17 |
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Lithia Motors Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Lithia Motors is traded for 382.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.63, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Lithia is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 371.17. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 47.73%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Lithia Motors is about 2896.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 382.59. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.5. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lithia Motors has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.25. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 29.3. The firm last dividend was issued on the 8th of November 2024. Lithia Motors had 1:10 split on the 16th of January 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Lithia Motors Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lithia Motors Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lithia Motors' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lithia Motors' future price movements. Getting to know how Lithia Motors' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lithia Motors may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | (0.14) | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.16 | 4.59 | (2.54) | 13.72 | |
| AN | AutoNation | 0.67 | 9 per month | 1.28 | 0.1 | 2.67 | (1.92) | 7.41 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 0.23 | 11 per month | 1.21 | 0.11 | 3.85 | (2.34) | 10.57 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | 0.27 | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0.04 | 2.22 | (1.49) | 7.57 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (0.74) | 6 per month | 1.11 | 0.17 | 2.86 | (2.04) | 11.29 |
Lithia Motors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lithia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lithia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lithia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lithia Motors Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lithia Motors stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lithia Motors, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lithia Motors based on analysis of Lithia Motors hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lithia Motors's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lithia Motors's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.007829 | 0.006706 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.2 | 0.26 |
Story Coverage note for Lithia Motors
The number of cover stories for Lithia Motors depends on current market conditions and Lithia Motors' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lithia Motors is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lithia Motors' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lithia Motors Short Properties
Lithia Motors' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lithia Motors' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lithia Motors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lithia Motors' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lithia Motors' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 941.4 M |
Complementary Tools for Lithia Stock analysis
When running Lithia Motors' price analysis, check to measure Lithia Motors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lithia Motors is operating at the current time. Most of Lithia Motors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lithia Motors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lithia Motors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lithia Motors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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