Orion Group Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| ORN Stock | USD 12.05 0.03 0.25% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0267 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.206 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3346 | Wall Street Target Price 13.125 |
Using Orion Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orion Group Holdings from the perspective of Orion Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Orion Group using Orion Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Orion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Orion Group's stock price.
Orion Group Short Interest
An investor who is long Orion Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Orion Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge Orion Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.6964 | Short Percent 0.0472 | Short Ratio 8.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 10.3956 |
Orion Group Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Orion Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Orion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Orion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Orion Group Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Orion Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Orion Group.
Orion Group Implied Volatility | 1.35 |
Orion Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Orion Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Orion Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Orion Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Orion Group's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Orion Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Orion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Orion Group after-hype prediction price | USD 12.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Orion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Orion Group Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0844% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Orion Group trading at USD 12.05, that is roughly USD 0.0102 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Orion Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Orion Group Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Orion Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Orion Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orion Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orion Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orion Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orion Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orion Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orion Group's historical news coverage. Orion Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.74 and 15.32, respectively. We have considered Orion Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orion Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orion Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orion Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orion Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orion Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orion Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 3.29 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.05 | 12.03 | 0.17 |
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Orion Group Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Orion Group Holdings is traded for 12.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Orion is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Orion Group is about 2150.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.09. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Orion Group was now reported as 3.96. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. Orion Group Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 40:1 split on the 21st of December 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Orion Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Orion Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orion Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orion Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Orion Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orion Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTRX | Matrix Service Co | 0.13 | 9 per month | 4.45 | (0.01) | 3.71 | (4.06) | 21.68 | |
| BBCP | Concrete Pumping Holdings | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.51 | (4.43) | 15.27 | |
| SWBI | Smith Wesson Brands | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.85 | 0.06 | 4.08 | (2.42) | 25.97 | |
| FBYD | Falcons Beyond Global | 2.66 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 19.89 | (15.43) | 45.53 | |
| BYRN | Byrna Technologies | 0.09 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (5.41) | 12.95 | |
| EBF | Ennis Inc | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.03 | 0.12 | 2.20 | (1.93) | 6.77 | |
| EVTL | Vertical Aerospace | (0.15) | 8 per month | 5.13 | 0.05 | 9.38 | (6.45) | 32.52 | |
| SRTA | Strata Critical Medical | (0.30) | 9 per month | 3.42 | (0) | 6.22 | (6.74) | 23.54 | |
| ULH | Universal Logistics Holdings | (0.73) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.52 | (6.95) | 18.95 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.43 | 0.09 | 4.52 | (2.80) | 13.02 |
Orion Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Orion Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Orion Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Orion Group Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Orion Group based on analysis of Orion Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Orion Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Orion Group's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.13 | 0.11 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.37 | 0.35 |
Pair Trading with Orion Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Orion Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Orion Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Orion Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Orion Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Orion Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Orion Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Orion Group Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Orion Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Orion Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Orion Group Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Orion Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Orion Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Construction & Engineering sector continue expanding? Could Orion diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orion Group. Anticipated expansion of Orion directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Orion Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Orion Group Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Orion's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Orion Group's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Orion Group's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Orion Group's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Orion Group should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Orion Group's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.