Replimune Group Stock Price Prediction
| REPL Stock | USD 11.85 1.71 16.86% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.78) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.66) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.25) | Wall Street Target Price 19.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.77) |
Using Replimune hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Replimune Group from the perspective of Replimune response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Replimune using Replimune's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Replimune using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Replimune's stock price.
Replimune Implied Volatility | 1.62 |
Replimune's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Replimune Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Replimune's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Replimune stock will not fluctuate a lot when Replimune's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Replimune to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Replimune because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Replimune after-hype prediction price | USD 11.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Replimune contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Replimune Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Replimune trading at USD 11.85, that is roughly USD 0.012 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Replimune's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Replimune Group options at the current volatility level of 1.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Replimune |
Replimune After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Replimune at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Replimune or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Replimune, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Replimune Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Replimune's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Replimune's historical news coverage. Replimune's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.72 and 17.88, respectively. We have considered Replimune's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Replimune is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Replimune Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Replimune Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Replimune is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Replimune backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Replimune, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 6.08 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 15 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.85 | 11.80 | 0.42 |
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Replimune Hype Timeline
Replimune Group is at this time traded for 11.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Replimune is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Replimune is about 3130.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.82. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Replimune was at this time reported as 5.58. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.04. Replimune Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Replimune Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Replimune Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Replimune's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Replimune's future price movements. Getting to know how Replimune's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Replimune may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Replimune Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Replimune price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Replimune using various technical indicators. When you analyze Replimune charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Replimune Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Replimune stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Replimune Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Replimune based on analysis of Replimune hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Replimune's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Replimune's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Replimune
The number of cover stories for Replimune depends on current market conditions and Replimune's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Replimune is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Replimune's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Replimune Short Properties
Replimune's future price predictability will typically decrease when Replimune's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Replimune Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Replimune's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Replimune's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 420.7 M |
Check out Replimune Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Replimune. If investors know Replimune will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Replimune listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Replimune Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Replimune that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Replimune's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Replimune's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Replimune's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Replimune's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Replimune's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Replimune is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Replimune's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.