Rlj Lodging Trust Stock Price Prediction
| RLJ Stock | USD 10.08 0.17 1.72% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.21 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1833 | Wall Street Target Price 11.5 |
Using RLJ Lodging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RLJ Lodging Trust from the perspective of RLJ Lodging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in RLJ Lodging to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying RLJ because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
RLJ Lodging after-hype prediction price | USD 9.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
RLJ |
RLJ Lodging After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RLJ Lodging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RLJ Lodging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RLJ Lodging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RLJ Lodging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RLJ Lodging's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RLJ Lodging's historical news coverage. RLJ Lodging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.29 and 11.57, respectively. We have considered RLJ Lodging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RLJ Lodging is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RLJ Lodging Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
RLJ Lodging Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RLJ Lodging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RLJ Lodging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RLJ Lodging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.64 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.08 | 9.93 | 0.20 |
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RLJ Lodging Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November RLJ Lodging Trust is traded for 10.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. RLJ is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price surge on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on RLJ Lodging is about 2624.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.09. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.33 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 76.41 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 363.06 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out RLJ Lodging Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.RLJ Lodging Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RLJ Lodging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RLJ Lodging's future price movements. Getting to know how RLJ Lodging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RLJ Lodging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SHO | Sunstone Hotel Investors | 0.04 | 5 per month | 1.33 | (0.06) | 2.17 | (2.51) | 7.79 | |
| PEB | Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | 0.40 | 10 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 3.92 | (3.29) | 10.70 | |
| INN | Summit Hotel Properties | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.56 | (2.41) | 10.45 | |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.06 | 2.10 | (1.74) | 7.06 | |
| DRH | Diamondrock Hospitality | 0.10 | 7 per month | 1.24 | 0 | 2.25 | (2.27) | 9.19 | |
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.03 | 3.67 | (2.16) | 11.57 | |
| HT | Hersha Hospitality Trust | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.28 | (2.58) | 9.17 | |
| XHR | Xenia Hotels Resorts | 0.16 | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.06 | 3.73 | (2.64) | 10.21 | |
| AHT-PF | Ashford Hospitality Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.74 | (5.27) | 13.16 | |
| SHO-PH | Sunstone Hotel Investors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | (0.04) | 2.37 | (1.97) | 6.65 | |
| INN-PE | Summit Hotel Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.62 | (0.10) | 1.22 | (1.15) | 3.39 | |
| AHT-PH | Ashford Hospitality Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.64 | (4.39) | 17.00 |
RLJ Lodging Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RLJ price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RLJ using various technical indicators. When you analyze RLJ charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About RLJ Lodging Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of RLJ Lodging stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as RLJ Lodging Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of RLJ Lodging based on analysis of RLJ Lodging hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to RLJ Lodging's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to RLJ Lodging's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0139 | 0.0224 | 0.0407 | 0.0348 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.91 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.31 |
Story Coverage note for RLJ Lodging
The number of cover stories for RLJ Lodging depends on current market conditions and RLJ Lodging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RLJ Lodging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RLJ Lodging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RLJ Lodging Short Properties
RLJ Lodging's future price predictability will typically decrease when RLJ Lodging's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RLJ Lodging Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RLJ Lodging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLJ Lodging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 516.7 M |
Check out RLJ Lodging Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Hotel & Resort REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RLJ Lodging. If investors know RLJ will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RLJ Lodging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.5 | Dividend Share 0.45 | Earnings Share 0.29 | Revenue Per Share 8.871 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.034 |
The market value of RLJ Lodging Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RLJ that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RLJ Lodging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RLJ Lodging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RLJ Lodging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RLJ Lodging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RLJ Lodging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RLJ Lodging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RLJ Lodging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.