Selective Insurance Group Preferred Stock Price Patterns

SIGIP Preferred Stock  USD 17.02  0.14  0.82%   
The value of RSI of Selective Insurance's preferred stock price is slightly above 60. This usually implies that the preferred stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Selective, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 60

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Selective Insurance's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Selective Insurance Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Selective Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Selective Insurance Group from the perspective of Selective Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Selective Insurance to buy its preferred stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Selective because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell preferred stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Selective Insurance after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Selective Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.4417.0217.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.4517.0317.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.6616.9817.31
Details

Selective Insurance After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Selective Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Selective Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Selective Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Selective Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Selective Insurance's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Selective Insurance's historical news coverage. Selective Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.44 and 17.60, respectively. We have considered Selective Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.02
17.02
After-hype Price
17.60
Upside
Selective Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Selective Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.

Selective Insurance Preferred Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Selective Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Selective Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Selective Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.58
 0.00  
 0.00  
25 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 25 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.02
17.02
0.00 
644.44  
Notes

Selective Insurance Hype Timeline

Selective Insurance is at this time traded for 17.02. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Selective is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Selective Insurance is about 172.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.02. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.62. Selective Insurance last dividend was issued on the 27th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 25 days.
Check out Selective Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Selective Insurance Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Selective Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Selective Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Selective Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Selective Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SAFTSafety Insurance Group 0.34 8 per month 1.09  0.1  2.22 (2.07) 6.16 
ROOTRoot Inc 1.37 11 per month 0.00 (0.05) 6.49 (6.51) 21.60 
HRTGHeritage Insurance Hldgs 0.13 7 per month 2.90  0.03  4.24 (4.89) 19.93 
PRAProAssurance(0.05)8 per month 0.20 (0.23) 0.38 (0.41) 1.04 
CFRCullenFrost Bankers 0.59 10 per month 0.86  0.09  3.15 (1.48) 7.64 
TRINTrinity Capital 0.39 9 per month 1.09  0.17  2.45 (1.55) 6.36 
ASICAtegrity Specialty Insurance 0.92 12 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.17 (3.44) 8.64 
OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp(0.08)10 per month 1.82 (0.02) 3.55 (2.24) 11.35 
UFCSUnited Fire Group(0.18)17 per month 1.10  0.07  2.14 (2.09) 17.21 
JCAPJefferson Capital Common(0.06)8 per month 2.35  0.07  4.12 (2.98) 17.08 

Selective Insurance Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Selective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Selective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Selective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Selective Insurance Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Selective Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Selective Insurance Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Selective Insurance based on analysis of Selective Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Selective Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Selective Insurance's related companies.

Pair Trading with Selective Insurance

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Selective Insurance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Selective Insurance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Selective Preferred Stock

  0.79ALL AllstatePairCorr
  0.79IFCZF Intact FinancialPairCorr
  0.74PGR Progressive Corp Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.74TRV The Travelers CompaniesPairCorr
  0.68LNDNF Lundin Energy ABPairCorr
  0.67PINXY Peoples InsurancePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Selective Insurance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Selective Insurance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Selective Insurance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Selective Insurance Group to buy it.
The correlation of Selective Insurance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Selective Insurance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Selective Insurance moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Selective Insurance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Selective Preferred Stock Analysis

When running Selective Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Selective Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Selective Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Selective Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Selective Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Selective Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Selective Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.