Vir Biotechnology Stock Price Prediction
| VIR Stock | USD 7.45 0.11 1.46% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.585 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.71) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.32) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.92) | Wall Street Target Price 17.1111 |
Using Vir Biotechnology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vir Biotechnology from the perspective of Vir Biotechnology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vir Biotechnology using Vir Biotechnology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vir using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vir Biotechnology's stock price.
Vir Biotechnology Short Interest
An investor who is long Vir Biotechnology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vir Biotechnology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vir Biotechnology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.5293 | Short Percent 0.1359 | Short Ratio 6.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.1 M | 50 Day MA 6.1554 |
Vir Biotechnology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vir Biotechnology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vir. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vir can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vir Biotechnology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vir Biotechnology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vir Biotechnology.
Vir Biotechnology Implied Volatility | 1.14 |
Vir Biotechnology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vir Biotechnology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vir Biotechnology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vir Biotechnology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vir Biotechnology's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vir Biotechnology to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vir because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vir Biotechnology after-hype prediction price | USD 7.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vir contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vir Biotechnology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0712% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vir Biotechnology trading at USD 7.45, that is roughly USD 0.005308 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vir Biotechnology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vir Biotechnology options at the current volatility level of 1.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Vir Biotechnology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Vir Biotechnology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vir Biotechnology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vir Biotechnology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vir Biotechnology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vir Biotechnology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vir Biotechnology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vir Biotechnology's historical news coverage. Vir Biotechnology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.78 and 12.12, respectively. We have considered Vir Biotechnology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vir Biotechnology is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vir Biotechnology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vir Biotechnology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vir Biotechnology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vir Biotechnology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vir Biotechnology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 4.57 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.45 | 7.45 | 0.00 |
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Vir Biotechnology Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Vir Biotechnology is traded for 7.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Vir is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vir Biotechnology is about 2086.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.34. About 78.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vir Biotechnology has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.14. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.62. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Vir Biotechnology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vir Biotechnology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vir Biotechnology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vir Biotechnology's future price movements. Getting to know how Vir Biotechnology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vir Biotechnology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRVI | Maravai Lifesciences Holdings | (0.32) | 3 per month | 3.19 | 0.03 | 8.38 | (6.35) | 20.24 | |
| IOVA | Iovance Biotherapeutics | (0.26) | 13 per month | 4.07 | 0.08 | 11.81 | (7.38) | 37.34 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | (0.32) | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.56 | (5.32) | 20.44 | |
| PRME | Prime Medicine Common | (0.34) | 29 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.57 | (7.69) | 23.00 | |
| DNA | Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings | 0.01 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.16 | (6.79) | 28.96 | |
| GERN | Geron | (0.06) | 9 per month | 2.87 | 0.03 | 6.72 | (4.76) | 16.99 | |
| LENZ | LENZ Therapeutics | (0.32) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 8.05 | (6.56) | 40.02 | |
| YDES | YD Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.86 | (12.41) | 39.47 | |
| DAWN | Day One Biopharmaceuticals | (0.26) | 25 per month | 3.53 | 0.13 | 13.81 | (6.53) | 39.62 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | (0.32) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.59 | (5.06) | 22.27 |
Vir Biotechnology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vir price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vir using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vir charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vir Biotechnology Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vir Biotechnology stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vir Biotechnology, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vir Biotechnology based on analysis of Vir Biotechnology hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vir Biotechnology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vir Biotechnology's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Interest Debt Per Share | 0.93 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.5 | Revenue Per Share | 0.64 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
Pair Trading with Vir Biotechnology
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vir Biotechnology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vir Biotechnology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Vir Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vir Biotechnology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vir Biotechnology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vir Biotechnology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vir Biotechnology to buy it.
The correlation of Vir Biotechnology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vir Biotechnology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vir Biotechnology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vir Biotechnology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Vir Stock Analysis
When running Vir Biotechnology's price analysis, check to measure Vir Biotechnology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vir Biotechnology is operating at the current time. Most of Vir Biotechnology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vir Biotechnology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vir Biotechnology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vir Biotechnology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.