Spdr Sp Oil Etf Price Prediction
| XES Etf | USD 96.44 2.12 2.15% |
Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using SPDR SP hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SPDR SP Oil from the perspective of SPDR SP response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards SPDR SP using SPDR SP's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards SPDR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of SPDR SP's stock price.
SPDR SP Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
SPDR SP's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of SPDR SP Oil stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if SPDR SP's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that SPDR SP stock will not fluctuate a lot when SPDR SP's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in SPDR SP to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying SPDR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
SPDR SP after-hype prediction price | USD 96.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current SPDR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that SPDR SP Oil will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With SPDR SP trading at USD 96.44, that is roughly USD 0.0277 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating SPDR SP's daily price movement you should consider acquiring SPDR SP Oil options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out SPDR SP Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPDR SP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SPDR SP After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SPDR SP at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SPDR SP or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of SPDR SP, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SPDR SP Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SPDR SP's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SPDR SP's historical news coverage. SPDR SP's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 94.53 and 98.35, respectively. We have considered SPDR SP's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SPDR SP is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SPDR SP Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
SPDR SP Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as SPDR SP is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SPDR SP backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SPDR SP, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 1.92 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 14 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
96.44 | 96.44 | 0.00 |
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SPDR SP Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January SPDR SP Oil is traded for 96.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. SPDR is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on SPDR SP is about 1846.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.41. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.81. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. SPDR SP Oil had 1-10 split on the 30th of March 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out SPDR SP Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.SPDR SP Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SPDR SP's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SPDR SP's future price movements. Getting to know how SPDR SP's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SPDR SP may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XPH | SPDR SP Pharmaceuticals | (0.30) | 4 per month | 0.92 | 0.10 | 2.13 | (1.94) | 6.05 | |
| XTL | SPDR SP Telecom | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.95 | 0.05 | 2.63 | (3.24) | 8.95 | |
| SIXL | 6 Meridian Low | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.59 | (0.06) | 1.07 | (0.78) | 3.40 | |
| BFOR | Barrons 400 ETF | 0.11 | 2 per month | 0.71 | 0.03 | 1.69 | (1.14) | 3.25 | |
| EDEN | iShares MSCI Denmark | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.88 | 0.09 | 2.22 | (1.64) | 5.34 | |
| HEEM | iShares Currency Hedged | (0.72) | 3 per month | 0.35 | 0.16 | 1.76 | (1.05) | 3.77 | |
| XTN | SPDR SP Transportation | 0.39 | 3 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 2.81 | (1.85) | 6.18 | |
| LFGY | YieldMax Crypto Industry | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.90 | (3.83) | 10.27 | |
| ROE | Astoria Quality Kings | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.04 | 1.34 | (1.66) | 3.56 | |
| SMLV | SPDR SSGA Small | (0.47) | 2 per month | 0.60 | 0.03 | 2.08 | (1.18) | 4.56 |
SPDR SP Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SPDR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SPDR using various technical indicators. When you analyze SPDR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About SPDR SP Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of SPDR SP stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as SPDR SP Oil, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of SPDR SP based on analysis of SPDR SP hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to SPDR SP's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to SPDR SP's related companies.
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Check out SPDR SP Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Investors evaluate SPDR SP Oil using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating SPDR SP's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause SPDR SP's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPDR SP's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPDR SP is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, SPDR SP's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.