Alerus Financial Corp Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| ALRS Stock | USD 22.11 0.22 1.01% |
Alerus | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Alerus Financial Corp Company probability of financial unrest Analysis
Alerus Financial's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Alerus Financial Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 8% |
Most of Alerus Financial's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alerus Financial Corp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alerus Financial probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alerus Financial odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alerus Financial Corp financial health.
Is Diversified Financial Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alerus Financial. If investors know Alerus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alerus Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.42) | Dividend Share 0.78 | Earnings Share 0.17 | Revenue Per Share 8.323 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
The market value of Alerus Financial Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alerus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alerus Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alerus Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alerus Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alerus Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alerus Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alerus Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alerus Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Alerus Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Alerus Financial is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Alerus Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Alerus Financial's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Alerus Financial's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Alerus Financial's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Alerus Financial Corp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 8.0%. This is 83.98% lower than that of the Financial Services sector and significantly higher than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 79.91% higher than that of the company.
Alerus Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alerus Financial's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alerus Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alerus Financial by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Alerus Financial is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Alerus Financial Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.0125 | 0.0148 | 0.0155 | 0.0106 | 0.002993 | 0.002843 | |
| Net Debt | (76.4M) | (106.4M) | (179.1M) | 384.6M | 249.0M | 261.4M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 1.9B | 2.5B | 2.8B | 378.1M | 2.9B | 3.1B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 67.6M | 66.6M | 63.2M | 378.1M | 3.5B | 3.7B | |
| Total Assets | 2.4B | 3.0B | 3.4B | 3.8B | 3.9B | 2.1B | |
| Total Current Assets | 461.9M | 775.0M | 1.1B | 823.6M | 28.9M | 27.4M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 19.2M | (22.3M) | 149.1M | 103.0M | 29.0M | 49.7M |
Alerus Financial ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Alerus Financial's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Alerus Financial's managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Alerus Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.0084 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 8.0E-4 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.20 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 806.08 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 25.34 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 8.96 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 39.89 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 243.49 K | ||||
| Price To Earning | 7.68 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.45 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 3.41 X | ||||
| Revenue | 166.17 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 210.95 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 5.3 M | ||||
| Net Income | 11.7 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 68.29 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 3.42 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 378.88 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 11.87 % | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 19.53 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 28.98 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 1.97 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.17 X | ||||
| Target Price | 23.2 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 709 | ||||
| Beta | 0.69 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 560.23 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 3.91 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 272.7 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.04 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 2.47 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 3.91 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.78 |
About Alerus Financial Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alerus Financial Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alerus Financial using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alerus Financial Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Alerus Stock Analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.