Orange County Bancorp Stock Beneish M Score

OBT Stock  USD 58.46  0.92  1.55%   
This module uses fundamental data of Orange County to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Orange County M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Orange County Piotroski F Score and Orange County Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Orange County's Long Term Debt To Capitalization is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Debt Equity Ratio is likely to gain to 1.61 in 2024, whereas Total Debt To Capitalization is likely to drop 0.36 in 2024. At this time, Orange County's Payout Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Capex To Operating Cash Flow is likely to gain to 0.11 in 2024, whereas Book Value Per Share is likely to drop 27.91 in 2024.
At this time, it appears that Orange County Bancorp is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Orange County's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Orange County executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Orange County's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-3.32
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.39

Focus
Asset Quality

1.0

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.97

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

N/A

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.97

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

0.92

Focus
Net Sales Growth

0.58

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.82

Focus

Orange County Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Orange County's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables4.8 M5.9 M
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue54.7 M93.9 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Assets1.4 B2.5 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets140 M147.4 M
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total2.4 B2.3 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment16.3 M16.9 M
Sufficiently Down
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative19.9 M35 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities2.1 BB
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total2.4 B2.3 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt235.7 M224.5 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt46.3 M29.5 M
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Operating Income39 M37.1 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities46.7 M44.5 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Investments392.4 M489.9 M
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Investments412.7 M489.9 M
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile

Orange County Bancorp Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Orange County's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Orange County in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Orange County's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Orange County Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Other Operating Expenses

98.74 Million

At this time, Orange County's Other Operating Expenses is comparatively stable compared to the past year.

Orange County Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Orange County. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables3.2M6.3M6.6M6.3M5.9M4.8M
Total Revenue52.9M59.7M72.0M89.9M93.9M54.7M
Total Assets1.2B1.7B2.1B2.3B2.5B1.4B
Total Current Assets283.2M457.6M777.6M625.9M147.4M140.0M
Net Debt(17.1M)(98.9M)(283.8M)196.4M106.6M112.0M
Long Term Debt8M22.3M22.4M150.9M29.5M46.3M
Operating Income13.9M14.5M26.7M36.4M37.1M39.0M
Investments3.7M(71.0M)(291.3M)(215.2M)(122.1M)(128.3M)

Orange County ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Orange County's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Orange County's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Orange County Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Orange County Bancorp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Orange County using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Orange County Bancorp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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Additional Tools for Orange Stock Analysis

When running Orange County's price analysis, check to measure Orange County's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orange County is operating at the current time. Most of Orange County's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orange County's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orange County's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orange County to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.