Is there a reason to drop Teekay (NYSE:TK) and short Enbridge?

The underlying purpose of this short report is to examine Teekay as an investment oportunity for June. We will concentrate on why recent Teekay Shipping price moves suggest a bounce in June.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

Teekay Shipping is UNDERVALUED at 4.62 per share with modest projections ahead. About 31.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. Insiders ownership of Teekay Shipping Corp refers to the amount of Teekay Shipping Corp equity owned by Teekay officers, directors, relatives of the leadership team, or anyone who has access to private information before it's made available to the public. Check out our latest analysis of Teekay, including its current ownership diagnostics.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Teekay. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Teekay


How important is Teekay's Liquidity

Teekay financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Teekay ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Teekay financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Teekay's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Teekay's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Teekay's total debt and its cash.

Teekay Gross Profit

Teekay Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Teekay previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Teekay Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Teekay's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

A Deeper Perspective On Teekay

The recent indifference towards the small price fluctuations of Teekay Shipping created some momentum for traders as it was traded today as low as 3.05 and as high as 3.24 per share. The company management teams did not add any value to Teekay Shipping Corp investors in April. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with Teekay Shipping to hedge their inherited risk against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 2.69. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in April 2022 as well as with Teekay Shipping Corp unsystematic, company-specific events.

Teekay Shipping price plunge is confusing

The total risk alpha is down to 0.39 as of today. Teekay Shipping Corp currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.1 and Jensen Alpha of 0.19. However, we advise investors to further question Teekay Shipping Corp expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Teekay Shipping's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Teekay Shipping's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Teekay Shipping Implied Volatility

Teekay Shipping's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Teekay Shipping Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Teekay Shipping's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Teekay Shipping stock will not fluctuate a lot when Teekay Shipping's options are near their expiration.

The Current Takeaway on Teekay Shipping Investment

When is the right time to buy or sell Teekay Shipping Corp? Buying stocks such as Teekay Shipping isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities, deliver winning trades and diversify portfolios on a daily basis.
To conclude, as of the 12th of May 2022, we believe that Teekay Shipping is currently undervalued with close to average probability of distress in the next two years. Our current 90 days 'Buy-vs-Sell' recommendation on the firm is Strong Hold.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Teekay. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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