Ciwen Media (China) Market Value
| 002343 Stock | 7.10 0.06 0.85% |
| Symbol | Ciwen |
Ciwen Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ciwen Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ciwen Media.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ciwen Media on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ciwen Media Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ciwen Media over 30 days. Ciwen Media is related to or competes with Agricultural Bank, Industrial, Bank of China, PetroChina, China Petroleum, Postal Savings, and China Telecom. Ciwen Media is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHE exchange. More
Ciwen Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ciwen Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ciwen Media Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.52 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0703 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.66) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.39 |
Ciwen Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ciwen Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ciwen Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ciwen Media historical prices to predict the future Ciwen Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0872 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3727 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.06 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.67 |
Ciwen Media Backtested Returns
Ciwen Media appears to be moderately volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Ciwen Media secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Ciwen Media's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.74% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Ciwen Media's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0872, mean deviation of 2.96, and Downside Deviation of 4.52 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ciwen Media holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.15, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ciwen Media's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ciwen Media is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Ciwen Media's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Ciwen Media's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Ciwen Media Co has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ciwen Media time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ciwen Media price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Ciwen Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.05 |
Ciwen Media lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ciwen Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ciwen Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ciwen Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ciwen Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ciwen Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ciwen Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ciwen Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ciwen Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ciwen Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ciwen Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ciwen Media stock have on its future price. Ciwen Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ciwen Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ciwen Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ciwen Media Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ciwen Stock
Ciwen Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ciwen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ciwen with respect to the benefits of owning Ciwen Media security.