Ardentec (Taiwan) Market Value
| 3264 Stock | TWD 54.30 2.10 3.72% |
| Symbol | Ardentec |
Ardentec 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ardentec's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ardentec.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ardentec on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ardentec or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ardentec over 720 days. Ardentec is related to or competes with Powertech Technology, Formosa Sumco, Radiant Opto, Faraday Technology, Tong Hsing, Topco Scientific, and Elan Microelectronics. More
Ardentec Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ardentec's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ardentec upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.22) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.94) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.59 |
Ardentec Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ardentec's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ardentec's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ardentec historical prices to predict the future Ardentec's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.10) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.31) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.52) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.56) |
Ardentec Backtested Returns
Ardentec secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.22, which signifies that the company had a -0.22% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Ardentec exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Ardentec's mean deviation of 1.3, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.10) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.45, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ardentec's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ardentec is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ardentec has a negative expected return of -0.38%. Please make sure to confirm Ardentec's mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Ardentec performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.73 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Ardentec has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ardentec time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ardentec price movement. The serial correlation of -0.73 indicates that around 73.0% of current Ardentec price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.73 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 40.02 |
Ardentec lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ardentec stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ardentec's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ardentec returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ardentec has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ardentec regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ardentec stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ardentec stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ardentec stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ardentec Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ardentec's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ardentec stock have on its future price. Ardentec autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ardentec autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ardentec stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ardentec.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Ardentec
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ardentec position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ardentec will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ardentec Stock
| 0.95 | 5483 | Sino American Silicon | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | 6239 | Powertech Technology | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | 3532 | Formosa Sumco Technology | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | 3035 | Faraday Technology Corp | PairCorr |
Moving against Ardentec Stock
| 0.86 | 2891 | CTBC Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | 2881A | Fubon Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | 2882B | Cathay Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | 5434 | Topco Scientific | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | 2330 | Taiwan Semiconductor | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ardentec could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ardentec when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ardentec - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ardentec to buy it.
The correlation of Ardentec is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ardentec moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ardentec moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ardentec can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Ardentec Stock Analysis
When running Ardentec's price analysis, check to measure Ardentec's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardentec is operating at the current time. Most of Ardentec's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardentec's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardentec's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardentec to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.