Ulta Beauty (Germany) Market Value
| 34U Stock | EUR 362.30 4.10 1.14% |
| Symbol | Ulta |
Ulta Beauty 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ulta Beauty's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ulta Beauty.
| 12/08/2023 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ulta Beauty on December 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ulta Beauty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ulta Beauty over 360 days. Ulta Beauty is related to or competes with United Insurance, Ping An, Salesforce, SBI Insurance, BOS BETTER, Hanover Insurance, and QBE Insurance. Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a beauty retailer in the United States More
Ulta Beauty Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ulta Beauty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0429 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.99 |
Ulta Beauty Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ulta Beauty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ulta Beauty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ulta Beauty historical prices to predict the future Ulta Beauty's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0905 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1231 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.046 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2975 |
Ulta Beauty Backtested Returns
At this point, Ulta Beauty is very steady. Ulta Beauty owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0862, which indicates the firm had a 0.0862% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Ulta Beauty, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Ulta Beauty's Semi Deviation of 1.7, coefficient of variation of 908.03, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0905 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.18%. Ulta Beauty has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.72, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ulta Beauty's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ulta Beauty is expected to be smaller as well. Ulta Beauty right now has a risk of 2.05%. Please validate Ulta Beauty standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Ulta Beauty will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.28 |
Weak reverse predictability
Ulta Beauty has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ulta Beauty time series from 8th of December 2023 to 5th of June 2024 and 5th of June 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ulta Beauty price movement. The serial correlation of -0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Ulta Beauty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 328.17 |
Ulta Beauty lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ulta Beauty stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ulta Beauty's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ulta Beauty returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ulta Beauty has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ulta Beauty regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ulta Beauty stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ulta Beauty stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ulta Beauty stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ulta Beauty Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ulta Beauty's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ulta Beauty stock have on its future price. Ulta Beauty autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ulta Beauty autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ulta Beauty stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ulta Beauty.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ulta Stock
When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:Check out Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Volatility and Ulta Beauty Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ulta Beauty. For more detail on how to invest in Ulta Stock please use our How to Invest in Ulta Beauty guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Ulta Beauty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.