ALD SA (Germany) Market Value
| 3AL Stock | EUR 5.98 0.16 2.61% |
| Symbol | ALD |
ALD SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ALD SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ALD SA.
| 12/08/2023 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ALD SA on December 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ALD SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in ALD SA over 360 days. ALD SA is related to or competes with MHP Hotel, Playa Hotels, Dalata Hotel, and CECO ENVIRONMENTAL. ALD S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides service leasing and vehicle fleet management services in France and i... More
ALD SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ALD SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ALD SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.05) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.33 |
ALD SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ALD SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ALD SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ALD SA historical prices to predict the future ALD SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.028 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0981 |
ALD SA Backtested Returns
At this point, ALD SA is slightly risky. ALD SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0072, which signifies that the company had a 0.0072% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for ALD SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm ALD SA's Downside Deviation of 3.04, mean deviation of 1.93, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.028 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.019%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.63, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, ALD SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ALD SA is expected to be smaller as well. ALD SA at this time shows a risk of 2.62%. Please confirm ALD SA mean deviation, downside deviation, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to decide if ALD SA will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.32 |
Below average predictability
ALD SA has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ALD SA time series from 8th of December 2023 to 5th of June 2024 and 5th of June 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ALD SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.32 indicates that nearly 32.0% of current ALD SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.32 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.12 |
ALD SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ALD SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ALD SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ALD SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ALD SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ALD SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ALD SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ALD SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ALD SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ALD SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating ALD SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ALD SA stock have on its future price. ALD SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ALD SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between ALD SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ALD SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in ALD Stock
ALD SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether ALD Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ALD with respect to the benefits of owning ALD SA security.