Changshu Tongrun (China) Market Value
| 603201 Stock | 17.33 0.60 3.35% |
| Symbol | Changshu |
Changshu Tongrun 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Changshu Tongrun's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Changshu Tongrun.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Changshu Tongrun on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Changshu Tongrun Auto or generate 0.0% return on investment in Changshu Tongrun over 30 days. Changshu Tongrun is related to or competes with Changshu Tianyin, Changshu Ruite, Changshu Automotive, Zhejiang Zanyu, Shanghai, and ShenZhen YUTO. Changshu Tongrun is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Changshu Tongrun Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Changshu Tongrun's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Changshu Tongrun Auto upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0582 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.93) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.36 |
Changshu Tongrun Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Changshu Tongrun's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Changshu Tongrun's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Changshu Tongrun historical prices to predict the future Changshu Tongrun's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0795 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3785 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0653 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.92) |
Changshu Tongrun Auto Backtested Returns
Changshu Tongrun appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Changshu Tongrun Auto secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By analyzing Changshu Tongrun's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.53% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Changshu Tongrun's mean deviation of 2.69, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0795 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Changshu Tongrun holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.37, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Changshu Tongrun are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Changshu Tongrun is likely to outperform the market. Please check Changshu Tongrun's downside deviation, standard deviation, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether Changshu Tongrun's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.6 |
Good reverse predictability
Changshu Tongrun Auto has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Changshu Tongrun time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Changshu Tongrun Auto price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Changshu Tongrun price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.51 |
Changshu Tongrun Auto lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Changshu Tongrun stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Changshu Tongrun's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Changshu Tongrun returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Changshu Tongrun has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Changshu Tongrun regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Changshu Tongrun stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Changshu Tongrun stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Changshu Tongrun stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Changshu Tongrun Lagged Returns
When evaluating Changshu Tongrun's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Changshu Tongrun stock have on its future price. Changshu Tongrun autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Changshu Tongrun autocorrelation shows the relationship between Changshu Tongrun stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Changshu Tongrun Auto.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Changshu Stock
Changshu Tongrun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changshu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changshu with respect to the benefits of owning Changshu Tongrun security.