TMP Steel (Taiwan) Market Value
| 6248 Stock | TWD 28.20 0.30 1.05% |
| Symbol | TMP |
TMP Steel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TMP Steel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TMP Steel.
| 10/04/2023 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TMP Steel on October 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TMP Steel or generate 0.0% return on investment in TMP Steel over 420 days. TMP Steel is related to or competes with China Steel, China Steel, Chung Hung, Tung Ho, Feng Hsin, Yieh Phui, and Yieh United. More
TMP Steel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TMP Steel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TMP Steel upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.74 |
TMP Steel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TMP Steel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TMP Steel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TMP Steel historical prices to predict the future TMP Steel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.32) |
TMP Steel Backtested Returns
TMP Steel owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.13, which indicates the firm had a -0.13% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. TMP Steel exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate TMP Steel's risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Variance of 1.96 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.12, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TMP Steel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TMP Steel is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, TMP Steel has a negative expected return of -0.19%. Please make sure to validate TMP Steel's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if TMP Steel performance from the past will be repeated at some future point.
Auto-correlation | -0.44 |
Modest reverse predictability
TMP Steel has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TMP Steel time series from 4th of October 2023 to 1st of May 2024 and 1st of May 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TMP Steel price movement. The serial correlation of -0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current TMP Steel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.44 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.29 |
TMP Steel lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TMP Steel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TMP Steel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TMP Steel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TMP Steel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TMP Steel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TMP Steel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TMP Steel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TMP Steel stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TMP Steel Lagged Returns
When evaluating TMP Steel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TMP Steel stock have on its future price. TMP Steel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TMP Steel autocorrelation shows the relationship between TMP Steel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TMP Steel.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with TMP Steel
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if TMP Steel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in TMP Steel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with TMP Stock
Moving against TMP Stock
| 0.93 | 2881A | Fubon Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | 9904 | Pou Chen Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | 2882B | Cathay Financial Holding | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | 2317 | Hon Hai Precision | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | 0050 | YuantaP shares Taiwan | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to TMP Steel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace TMP Steel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back TMP Steel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling TMP Steel to buy it.
The correlation of TMP Steel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as TMP Steel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if TMP Steel moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for TMP Steel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for TMP Stock Analysis
When running TMP Steel's price analysis, check to measure TMP Steel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TMP Steel is operating at the current time. Most of TMP Steel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TMP Steel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TMP Steel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TMP Steel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.