Astra Agro (Indonesia) Market Value
| AALI Stock | IDR 6,200 50.00 0.80% |
| Symbol | Astra |
Astra Agro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Astra Agro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Astra Agro.
| 10/25/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Astra Agro on October 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Astra Agro Lestari or generate 0.0% return on investment in Astra Agro over 30 days. Astra Agro is related to or competes with Perusahaan Perkebunan, United Tractors, Vale Indonesia, Astra International, and Bukit Asam. More
Astra Agro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Astra Agro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Astra Agro Lestari upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.6 |
Astra Agro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Astra Agro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Astra Agro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Astra Agro historical prices to predict the future Astra Agro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0412 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0662 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (6.43) |
Astra Agro Lestari Backtested Returns
As of now, Astra Stock is very steady. Astra Agro Lestari secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0316, which signifies that the company had a 0.0316% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Astra Agro Lestari, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Astra Agro's Mean Deviation of 1.2, downside deviation of 1.32, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0412 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0506%. Astra Agro has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0101, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Astra Agro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Astra Agro is likely to outperform the market. Astra Agro Lestari right now shows a risk of 1.6%. Please confirm Astra Agro Lestari total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Astra Agro Lestari will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.61 |
Good predictability
Astra Agro Lestari has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Astra Agro time series from 25th of October 2024 to 9th of November 2024 and 9th of November 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Astra Agro Lestari price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Astra Agro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 38 K |
Astra Agro Lestari lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Astra Agro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Astra Agro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Astra Agro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Astra Agro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Astra Agro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Astra Agro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Astra Agro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Astra Agro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Astra Agro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Astra Agro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Astra Agro stock have on its future price. Astra Agro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Astra Agro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Astra Agro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Astra Agro Lestari.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Astra Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Agro security.