Agriauto Industries (Pakistan) Market Value
| AGIL Stock | 102.18 0.15 0.15% |
| Symbol | Agriauto |
Agriauto Industries 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agriauto Industries' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agriauto Industries.
| 09/25/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Agriauto Industries on September 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agriauto Industries or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agriauto Industries over 60 days. Agriauto Industries is related to or competes with Allied Bank, Habib Insurance, Shaheen Insurance, Askari Bank, United Insurance, Oil, and Bank of Punjab. More
Agriauto Industries Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agriauto Industries' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agriauto Industries upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0073 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.53 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.84) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.24 |
Agriauto Industries Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agriauto Industries' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agriauto Industries' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agriauto Industries historical prices to predict the future Agriauto Industries' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0471 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1851 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0085 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.40) |
Agriauto Industries Backtested Returns
Agriauto Industries appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Agriauto Industries secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0867, which signifies that the company had a 0.0867% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Agriauto Industries, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Agriauto Industries' Mean Deviation of 2.04, downside deviation of 2.56, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0471 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Agriauto Industries holds a performance score of 6. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.35, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Agriauto Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Agriauto Industries is likely to outperform the market. Please check Agriauto Industries' jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Agriauto Industries' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
Agriauto Industries has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agriauto Industries time series from 25th of September 2024 to 25th of October 2024 and 25th of October 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agriauto Industries price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Agriauto Industries price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 117.26 |
Agriauto Industries lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Agriauto Industries stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agriauto Industries' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agriauto Industries returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agriauto Industries has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Agriauto Industries regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agriauto Industries stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agriauto Industries stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agriauto Industries stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Agriauto Industries Lagged Returns
When evaluating Agriauto Industries' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agriauto Industries stock have on its future price. Agriauto Industries autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agriauto Industries autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agriauto Industries stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agriauto Industries.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Agriauto Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agriauto Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agriauto Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agriauto Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agriauto Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agriauto Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agriauto Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Agriauto Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agriauto Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agriauto Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agriauto Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Agriauto Stock
Agriauto Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agriauto Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agriauto with respect to the benefits of owning Agriauto Industries security.