Agora SA (Poland) Market Value
| AGO Stock | 8.70 0.09 1.05% |
| Symbol | Agora |
Agora SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agora SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agora SA.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Agora SA on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agora SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agora SA over 720 days. Agora SA is related to or competes with Banco Santander, UniCredit SpA, CEZ As, Polski Koncern, Dino Polska, Allegroeu, and Santander Bank. More
Agora SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agora SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agora SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.24) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.75) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.89 |
Agora SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agora SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agora SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agora SA historical prices to predict the future Agora SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.12) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.59) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.07) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agora SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agora SA Backtested Returns
Agora SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.14, which signifies that the company had a -0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Agora SA exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Agora SA's Mean Deviation of 1.27, standard deviation of 1.79, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.12) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.27, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Agora SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Agora SA is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Agora SA has a negative expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to confirm Agora SA's maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and day typical price , to decide if Agora SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.78 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Agora SA has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agora SA time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agora SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.78 indicates that around 78.0% of current Agora SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.78 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.82 |
Agora SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Agora SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agora SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agora SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agora SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Agora SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agora SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agora SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agora SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Agora SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Agora SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agora SA stock have on its future price. Agora SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agora SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agora SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agora SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Agora SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agora SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agora SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Agora Stock
Moving against Agora Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agora SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agora SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agora SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agora SA to buy it.
The correlation of Agora SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agora SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agora SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agora SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Agora Stock Analysis
When running Agora SA's price analysis, check to measure Agora SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agora SA is operating at the current time. Most of Agora SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agora SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agora SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agora SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.