Assured Guaranty Stock Market Value
| AGO Stock | USD 94.69 1.60 1.72% |
| Symbol | Assured |
Assured Guaranty Price To Book Ratio
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Assured Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.219 | Dividend Share 1.21 | Earnings Share 12.75 | Revenue Per Share 15.821 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of Assured Guaranty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Assured that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Assured Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Assured Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Assured Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Assured Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Assured Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assured Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assured Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Assured Guaranty 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Assured Guaranty's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Assured Guaranty.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Assured Guaranty on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Assured Guaranty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Assured Guaranty over 30 days. Assured Guaranty is related to or competes with Investors Title, AMERISAFE, Essent, ICC Holdings, MGIC Investment, and Radian. Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, ... More
Assured Guaranty Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Assured Guaranty's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Assured Guaranty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0974 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.67 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.89 |
Assured Guaranty Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Assured Guaranty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Assured Guaranty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Assured Guaranty historical prices to predict the future Assured Guaranty's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1394 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1393 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.019 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1183 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2358 |
Assured Guaranty Backtested Returns
Assured Guaranty appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Assured Guaranty secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which signifies that the company had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Assured Guaranty, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Assured Guaranty's Mean Deviation of 1.26, risk adjusted performance of 0.1394, and Downside Deviation of 1.39 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Assured Guaranty holds a performance score of 13. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.21, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Assured Guaranty will likely underperform. Please check Assured Guaranty's treynor ratio, kurtosis, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether Assured Guaranty's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Assured Guaranty has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Assured Guaranty time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Assured Guaranty price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Assured Guaranty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.17 |
Assured Guaranty lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Assured Guaranty stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Assured Guaranty's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Assured Guaranty returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Assured Guaranty has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Assured Guaranty regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Assured Guaranty stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Assured Guaranty stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Assured Guaranty stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Assured Guaranty Lagged Returns
When evaluating Assured Guaranty's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Assured Guaranty stock have on its future price. Assured Guaranty autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Assured Guaranty autocorrelation shows the relationship between Assured Guaranty stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Assured Guaranty.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Assured Guaranty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Assured Guaranty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Assured Guaranty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Assured Stock
Moving against Assured Stock
| 0.68 | JRVR | James River Group | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | ESNT | Essent Group | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | NMIH | NMI Holdings Normal Trading | PairCorr |
| 0.37 | ACT | Enact Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | PPHI | Positive Physicians | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Assured Guaranty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Assured Guaranty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Assured Guaranty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Assured Guaranty to buy it.
The correlation of Assured Guaranty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Assured Guaranty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Assured Guaranty moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Assured Guaranty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Assured Guaranty Correlation, Assured Guaranty Volatility and Assured Guaranty Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Assured Guaranty. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Assured Guaranty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.