Assured Guaranty Stock Technical Analysis
| AGO Stock | USD 86.34 0.56 0.64% |
As of the 15th of February 2026, Assured Guaranty shows the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0105, downside deviation of 1.16, and Mean Deviation of 0.7513. Assured Guaranty technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices.
Assured Guaranty Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Assured, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to AssuredAssured Guaranty's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Assured Guaranty Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 107.0 | Buy | 4 | Odds |
Most Assured analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Assured stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Assured Guaranty, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Assured conference calls.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.33 | Earnings Share 8.16 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.
Assured Guaranty 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Assured Guaranty's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Assured Guaranty.
| 11/17/2025 |
| 02/15/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Assured Guaranty on November 17, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Assured Guaranty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Assured Guaranty over 90 days. Assured Guaranty is related to or competes with Radian, CNO Financial, FG Annuities, Federated Investors, Golub Capital, NMI Holdings, and Texas Capital. Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, ... More
Assured Guaranty Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Assured Guaranty's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Assured Guaranty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.63 |
Assured Guaranty Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Assured Guaranty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Assured Guaranty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Assured Guaranty historical prices to predict the future Assured Guaranty's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0105 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0023 |
Assured Guaranty February 15, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0105 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0123 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7513 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 9945.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0023 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) | |||
| Skewness | (0.64) | |||
| Kurtosis | 2.58 |
Assured Guaranty Backtested Returns
Assured Guaranty secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of close to zero, which signifies that the company had a close to zero % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Assured Guaranty exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Assured Guaranty's Downside Deviation of 1.16, mean deviation of 0.7513, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0105 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.31, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Assured Guaranty's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Assured Guaranty is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Assured Guaranty has a negative expected return of -0.0019%. Please make sure to confirm Assured Guaranty's treynor ratio, kurtosis, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and day median price , to decide if Assured Guaranty performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.05 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Assured Guaranty has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Assured Guaranty time series from 17th of November 2025 to 1st of January 2026 and 1st of January 2026 to 15th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Assured Guaranty price movement. The serial correlation of -0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current Assured Guaranty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.05 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.46 |
Assured Guaranty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Normalized Average True Range is used to analyze tradable apportunities for Assured Guaranty across different markets.
About Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Assured Guaranty on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Assured Guaranty price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Assured Guaranty. By analyzing Assured Guaranty's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Assured Guaranty specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0153 | 0.0142 | 0.0128 | 0.0118 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.31 | 5.89 | 5.3 | 2.78 |
Assured Guaranty February 15, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Assured help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Assured from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Assured charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0105 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0123 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7513 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 9945.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0023 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.39) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) | |||
| Skewness | (0.64) | |||
| Kurtosis | 2.58 |
Assured Guaranty February 15, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Assured stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.01 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | ||
| Day Median Price | 86.18 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 86.23 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | ||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.12 |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Assured Guaranty. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.33 | Earnings Share 8.16 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.