AKD Hospitality (Pakistan) Market Value
| AKDHL Stock | 131.04 8.96 6.40% |
| Symbol | AKD |
AKD Hospitality 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AKD Hospitality's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AKD Hospitality.
| 05/30/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AKD Hospitality on May 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AKD Hospitality or generate 0.0% return on investment in AKD Hospitality over 180 days.
AKD Hospitality Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AKD Hospitality's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AKD Hospitality upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.6 |
AKD Hospitality Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AKD Hospitality's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AKD Hospitality's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AKD Hospitality historical prices to predict the future AKD Hospitality's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.009 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.41) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1034 |
AKD Hospitality Backtested Returns
AKD Hospitality secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0349, which signifies that the company had a -0.0349% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. AKD Hospitality exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AKD Hospitality's Standard Deviation of 2.25, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Mean Deviation of 1.56 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.59, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AKD Hospitality are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AKD Hospitality is likely to outperform the market. At this point, AKD Hospitality has a negative expected return of -0.0847%. Please make sure to confirm AKD Hospitality's value at risk, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and accumulation distribution , to decide if AKD Hospitality performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.42 |
Modest reverse predictability
AKD Hospitality has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AKD Hospitality time series from 30th of May 2024 to 28th of August 2024 and 28th of August 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AKD Hospitality price movement. The serial correlation of -0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current AKD Hospitality price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 31.26 |
AKD Hospitality lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AKD Hospitality stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AKD Hospitality's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AKD Hospitality returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AKD Hospitality has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AKD Hospitality regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AKD Hospitality stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AKD Hospitality stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AKD Hospitality stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AKD Hospitality Lagged Returns
When evaluating AKD Hospitality's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AKD Hospitality stock have on its future price. AKD Hospitality autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AKD Hospitality autocorrelation shows the relationship between AKD Hospitality stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AKD Hospitality.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with AKD Hospitality
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AKD Hospitality position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AKD Hospitality will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to AKD Hospitality could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AKD Hospitality when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AKD Hospitality - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AKD Hospitality to buy it.
The correlation of AKD Hospitality is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AKD Hospitality moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AKD Hospitality moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AKD Hospitality can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.