Aplisens (Poland) Market Value
| APN Stock | 18.50 0.35 1.93% |
| Symbol | Aplisens |
Aplisens 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aplisens' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aplisens.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aplisens on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aplisens SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aplisens over 180 days.
Aplisens Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aplisens' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aplisens SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.05 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.54 |
Aplisens Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aplisens' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aplisens' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aplisens historical prices to predict the future Aplisens' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.37 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aplisens' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aplisens SA Backtested Returns
Aplisens SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which signifies that the company had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aplisens SA exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aplisens' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), mean deviation of 1.22, and Standard Deviation of 1.78 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0967, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aplisens are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aplisens is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Aplisens SA has a negative expected return of -0.2%. Please make sure to confirm Aplisens' kurtosis, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and day median price , to decide if Aplisens SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.7 |
Very good reverse predictability
Aplisens SA has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aplisens time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aplisens SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Aplisens price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.87 |
Aplisens SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aplisens stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aplisens' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aplisens returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aplisens has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aplisens regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aplisens stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aplisens stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aplisens stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aplisens Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aplisens' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aplisens stock have on its future price. Aplisens autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aplisens autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aplisens stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aplisens SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Aplisens
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aplisens position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aplisens will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aplisens Stock
Moving against Aplisens Stock
| 0.72 | UCG | UniCredit SpA | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | DNP | Dino Polska SA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aplisens could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aplisens when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aplisens - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aplisens SA to buy it.
The correlation of Aplisens is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aplisens moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aplisens SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aplisens can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Aplisens Stock Analysis
When running Aplisens' price analysis, check to measure Aplisens' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aplisens is operating at the current time. Most of Aplisens' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aplisens' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aplisens' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aplisens to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.