Ariel Focus Fund Market Value
| ARFFX Fund | USD 18.02 0.04 0.22% |
| Symbol | Ariel |
Ariel Focus 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ariel Focus' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ariel Focus.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ariel Focus on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ariel Focus Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ariel Focus over 30 days. Ariel Focus is related to or competes with Ariel Appreciation, Ariel Fund, Ariel Global, Ariel International, and Partners Iii. The fund invests primarily in equity securities of companies of any size in order to provide investors access to superio... More
Ariel Focus Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ariel Focus' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ariel Focus Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7607 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0016 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.37 |
Ariel Focus Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ariel Focus' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ariel Focus' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ariel Focus historical prices to predict the future Ariel Focus' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1115 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.002 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1119 |
Ariel Focus Fund Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Ariel Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ariel Focus Fund secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which signifies that the fund had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ariel Focus Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Ariel Focus' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1115, mean deviation of 0.702, and Downside Deviation of 0.7607 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.15, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Ariel Focus will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.93 |
Excellent predictability
Ariel Focus Fund has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ariel Focus time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ariel Focus Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Ariel Focus price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Ariel Focus Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ariel Focus mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ariel Focus' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ariel Focus returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ariel Focus has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ariel Focus regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ariel Focus mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ariel Focus mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ariel Focus mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ariel Focus Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ariel Focus' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ariel Focus mutual fund have on its future price. Ariel Focus autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ariel Focus autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ariel Focus mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ariel Focus Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ariel Mutual Fund
Ariel Focus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariel with respect to the benefits of owning Ariel Focus security.
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