China Merchants Bank Stock Market Value

CIHKY Stock  USD 23.18  0.09  0.39%   
China Merchants' market value is the price at which a share of China Merchants trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of China Merchants Bank investors about its performance. China Merchants is trading at 23.18 as of the 22nd of November 2024; that is 0.39 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 23.27.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of China Merchants Bank and determine expected loss or profit from investing in China Merchants over a given investment horizon. Check out China Merchants Correlation, China Merchants Volatility and China Merchants Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on China Merchants.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between China Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if China Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

China Merchants 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Merchants' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Merchants.
0.00
05/26/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 5 months and 29 days
11/22/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in China Merchants on May 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Merchants Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Merchants over 180 days. China Merchants is related to or competes with China Everbright, China Merchants, Postal Savings, China Citic, Community West, Bank of the Philippine Is, and BOC Hong. China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services More

China Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Merchants' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Merchants Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

China Merchants Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Merchants historical prices to predict the future China Merchants' volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.8123.1827.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.7520.1224.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
17.8922.2626.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.4124.1725.93
Details

China Merchants Bank Backtested Returns

China Merchants appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. China Merchants Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.048, which signifies that the company had a 0.048% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for China Merchants Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of China Merchants' Downside Deviation of 3.88, mean deviation of 2.68, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0425 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, China Merchants holds a performance score of 3. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.59, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning China Merchants are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, China Merchants is likely to outperform the market. Please check China Merchants' semi variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether China Merchants' price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.07  

Virtually no predictability

China Merchants Bank has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Merchants time series from 26th of May 2024 to 24th of August 2024 and 24th of August 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Merchants Bank price movement. The serial correlation of 0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current China Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.07
Spearman Rank Test-0.3
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance8.57

China Merchants Bank lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is China Merchants pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Merchants' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Merchants returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Merchants has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

China Merchants regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Merchants pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Merchants pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Merchants pink sheet over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

China Merchants Lagged Returns

When evaluating China Merchants' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Merchants pink sheet have on its future price. China Merchants autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Merchants autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Merchants pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Merchants Bank.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Additional Tools for China Pink Sheet Analysis

When running China Merchants' price analysis, check to measure China Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of China Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.