Conocophillips Stock Market Value
| COP Stock | USD 111.90 1.53 1.35% |
| Symbol | ConocoPhillips |
Is Petroleum and Natural Gas space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConocoPhillips. If investors know ConocoPhillips will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConocoPhillips listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of ConocoPhillips is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConocoPhillips that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConocoPhillips' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConocoPhillips' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConocoPhillips' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConocoPhillips' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConocoPhillips is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
| 10/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ConocoPhillips on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 30 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Diamondback Energy, APA, Hess, Coterra Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, and EOG Resources. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More
ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.24) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.59 |
ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0069 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.07) |
ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns
Currently, ConocoPhillips is very steady. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0016, which signifies that the company had a 0.0016% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm ConocoPhillips' Mean Deviation of 1.23, risk adjusted performance of 0.0069, and Downside Deviation of 1.6 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0028%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.1, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, ConocoPhillips' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ConocoPhillips is expected to be smaller as well. ConocoPhillips right now shows a risk of 1.75%. Please confirm ConocoPhillips semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to decide if ConocoPhillips will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.28 |
Poor predictability
ConocoPhillips has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of 0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.73 |
ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns
When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with ConocoPhillips
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ConocoPhillips position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ConocoPhillips will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ConocoPhillips Stock
| 0.79 | PR | Permian Resources Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Moving against ConocoPhillips Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ConocoPhillips could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ConocoPhillips when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ConocoPhillips - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ConocoPhillips to buy it.
The correlation of ConocoPhillips is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ConocoPhillips moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ConocoPhillips moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ConocoPhillips can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for ConocoPhillips Stock Analysis
When running ConocoPhillips' price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.