ConocoPhillips (Brazil) Market Value
| COPH34 Stock | BRL 53.88 2.49 4.85% |
| Symbol | ConocoPhillips |
ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ConocoPhillips on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 30 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Deutsche Bank, MAHLE Metal, SVB Financial, Iron Mountain, CM Hospitalar, Metalrgica Riosulense, and STMicroelectronics. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More
ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.68 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.56 |
ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0224 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0997 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.31) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.07) |
ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns
ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0196, which signifies that the company had a -0.0196% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. ConocoPhillips exposes thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm ConocoPhillips' Downside Deviation of 2.3, risk adjusted performance of 0.0224, and Mean Deviation of 1.45 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.53, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning ConocoPhillips are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, ConocoPhillips is likely to outperform the market. At this point, ConocoPhillips has a negative expected return of -0.0432%. Please make sure to confirm ConocoPhillips' total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if ConocoPhillips performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.51 |
Good reverse predictability
ConocoPhillips has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of -0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.37 |
ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns
When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ConocoPhillips Stock
When determining whether ConocoPhillips is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ConocoPhillips Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:Check out ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips. For information on how to trade ConocoPhillips Stock refer to our How to Trade ConocoPhillips Stock guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
ConocoPhillips technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.