Exco Resources Stock Market Value
| EXCE Stock | USD 18.10 0.40 2.16% |
| Symbol | EXCO |
EXCO Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to EXCO Resources' pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of EXCO Resources.
| 01/09/2024 |
| 12/29/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in EXCO Resources on January 9, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding EXCO Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in EXCO Resources over 720 days. EXCO Resources is related to or competes with John Wood, Coelacanth Energy, Horizon Oil, Empire Energy, Frontera Energy, Unit, and Saturn Oil. EXCO Resources, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation,... More
EXCO Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure EXCO Resources' pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess EXCO Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.7 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1075 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.88 |
EXCO Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for EXCO Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as EXCO Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use EXCO Resources historical prices to predict the future EXCO Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1013 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4016 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0762 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.076 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.04 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of EXCO Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
EXCO Resources Backtested Returns
EXCO Resources appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. EXCO Resources retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which denotes the company had a 0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for EXCO Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize EXCO Resources' Coefficient Of Variation of 751.04, downside deviation of 4.7, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.05 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, EXCO Resources holds a performance score of 10. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.41, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, EXCO Resources' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding EXCO Resources is expected to be smaller as well. Please check EXCO Resources' treynor ratio, expected short fall, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether EXCO Resources' current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.46 |
Average predictability
EXCO Resources has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between EXCO Resources time series from 9th of January 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 29th of December 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of EXCO Resources price movement. The serial correlation of 0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current EXCO Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.53 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.01 |
EXCO Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is EXCO Resources pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting EXCO Resources' pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of EXCO Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that EXCO Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
EXCO Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If EXCO Resources pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if EXCO Resources pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in EXCO Resources pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
EXCO Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating EXCO Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of EXCO Resources pink sheet have on its future price. EXCO Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, EXCO Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between EXCO Resources pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in EXCO Resources.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in EXCO Pink Sheet
EXCO Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether EXCO Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EXCO with respect to the benefits of owning EXCO Resources security.