Exco Resources Stock Price Patterns

EXCE Stock  USD 20.50  1.37  7.16%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of EXCO Resources' share price is above 70 at the present time suggesting that the pink sheet is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling EXCO, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 70

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of EXCO Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of EXCO Resources and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from EXCO Resources' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with EXCO Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using EXCO Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EXCO Resources from the perspective of EXCO Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in EXCO Resources to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying EXCO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

EXCO Resources after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out EXCO Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of EXCO Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.8715.9922.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
19.1821.2923.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.9819.0121.04
Details

EXCO Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of EXCO Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EXCO Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of EXCO Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

EXCO Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting EXCO Resources' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EXCO Resources' historical news coverage. EXCO Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.38 and 22.62, respectively. We have considered EXCO Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.50
20.50
After-hype Price
22.62
Upside
EXCO Resources is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EXCO Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.

EXCO Resources Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EXCO Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EXCO Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EXCO Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48 
2.12
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.50
20.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

EXCO Resources Hype Timeline

EXCO Resources is currently traded for 20.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. EXCO is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on EXCO Resources is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.50. The company recorded a loss per share of 8.43. EXCO Resources last dividend was issued on the 18th of September 2014. The entity had 1:15 split on the 13th of June 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out EXCO Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

EXCO Resources Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to EXCO Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EXCO Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how EXCO Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EXCO Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RZREFRazor Energy Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
WDGJYJohn Wood Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
CEIEFCoelacanth Energy 0.00 0 per month 1.85  0.03  3.45 (3.33) 14.04 
HZNFFHorizon Oil Limited 0.00 0 per month 5.59  0.04  14.29 (12.50) 70.45 
EEGUFEmpire Energy Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 5.56 (10.53) 29.43 
FECCFFrontera Energy Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.36  0.19  5.56 (2.92) 13.44 
UNTCUnit Corporation 0.00 0 per month 1.14  0.07  2.09 (1.68) 5.62 
OILSFSaturn Oil Gas 0.00 0 per month 2.55  0.13  5.50 (4.44) 12.06 
PEGIYEnergi Mega Persada 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ENQUFEnQuest PLC 0.00 0 per month 2.23  0.06  7.69 (6.67) 20.54 

EXCO Resources Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine EXCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EXCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze EXCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About EXCO Resources Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of EXCO Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as EXCO Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of EXCO Resources based on analysis of EXCO Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to EXCO Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to EXCO Resources's related companies.

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Complementary Tools for EXCO Pink Sheet analysis

When running EXCO Resources' price analysis, check to measure EXCO Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EXCO Resources is operating at the current time. Most of EXCO Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EXCO Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EXCO Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EXCO Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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