American States (Germany) Market Value
| FDK Stock | EUR 80.25 0.80 0.99% |
| Symbol | American |
American States 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American States' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American States.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American States on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American States Water or generate 0.0% return on investment in American States over 720 days. American States is related to or competes with TITAN MACHINERY, DAIRY FARM, Titan Machinery, Hanison Construction, and Sumitomo Mitsui. American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, industrial... More
American States Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American States' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American States Water upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0487 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.51 |
American States Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American States' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American States' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American States historical prices to predict the future American States' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1138 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1143 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.062 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3077 |
American States Water Backtested Returns
At this point, American States is very steady. American States Water secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which signifies that the company had a 0.11% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for American States Water, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm American States' risk adjusted performance of 0.1138, and Mean Deviation of 1.01 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. American States has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.61, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American States' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American States is expected to be smaller as well. American States Water right now shows a risk of 1.4%. Please confirm American States Water semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if American States Water will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.43 |
Modest reverse predictability
American States Water has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American States time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American States Water price movement. The serial correlation of -0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current American States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 24.24 |
American States Water lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American States stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American States' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American States returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American States has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American States stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American States stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American States stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American States Lagged Returns
When evaluating American States' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American States stock have on its future price. American States autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American States autocorrelation shows the relationship between American States stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American States Water.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American States Water is a strong investment it is important to analyze American States' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American States' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out American States Correlation, American States Volatility and American States Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American States. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
American States technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.