Fibrogen Stock Market Value
| FGEN Stock | USD 0.39 0.01 2.50% |
| Symbol | FibroGen |
FibroGen Price To Book Ratio
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FibroGen. If investors know FibroGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FibroGen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | Earnings Share (1.23) | Revenue Per Share 1.758 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.143 | Return On Assets (0.27) |
The market value of FibroGen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FibroGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FibroGen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FibroGen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FibroGen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FibroGen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FibroGen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FibroGen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FibroGen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
FibroGen 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FibroGen's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FibroGen.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FibroGen on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FibroGen or generate 0.0% return on investment in FibroGen over 30 days. FibroGen is related to or competes with Ardelyx, Zura Bio, Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Verastem, Mereo BioPharma, Blueprint Medicines, and Agios Pharm. FibroGen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics to treat serious unmet... More
FibroGen Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FibroGen's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FibroGen upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.84 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0055 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 11.9 |
FibroGen Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FibroGen's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FibroGen's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FibroGen historical prices to predict the future FibroGen's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0283 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.85) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0052 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0863 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FibroGen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FibroGen Backtested Returns
FibroGen appears to be abnormally volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. FibroGen secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0446, which denotes the company had a 0.0446% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for FibroGen, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize FibroGen's Semi Deviation of 5.46, downside deviation of 6.84, and Mean Deviation of 4.79 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, FibroGen holds a performance score of 3. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.79, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, FibroGen will likely underperform. Please check FibroGen's potential upside, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether FibroGen's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.09 |
Virtually no predictability
FibroGen has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FibroGen time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FibroGen price movement. The serial correlation of 0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current FibroGen price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
FibroGen lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FibroGen stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FibroGen's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FibroGen returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FibroGen has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FibroGen regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FibroGen stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FibroGen stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FibroGen stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FibroGen Lagged Returns
When evaluating FibroGen's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FibroGen stock have on its future price. FibroGen autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FibroGen autocorrelation shows the relationship between FibroGen stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FibroGen.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with FibroGen
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if FibroGen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in FibroGen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against FibroGen Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to FibroGen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace FibroGen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back FibroGen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling FibroGen to buy it.
The correlation of FibroGen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as FibroGen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if FibroGen moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for FibroGen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out FibroGen Correlation, FibroGen Volatility and FibroGen Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on FibroGen. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
FibroGen technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.