First Community Financial Stock Market Value
| FMFP Stock | USD 11.90 1.03 9.48% |
| Symbol | First |
First Community 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Community's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Community.
| 03/12/2023 |
| 01/30/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Community on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Community Financial or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Community over 690 days. First Community is related to or competes with CCSB Financial, Bank of Utica, BEO Bancorp, First Community, and Delhi Bank. First Community Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Pennian Bank that provides various banking ... More
First Community Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Community's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Community Financial upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.49 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.96 |
First Community Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Community's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Community's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Community historical prices to predict the future First Community's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2892 |
First Community Financial Backtested Returns
First Community Financial secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0344, which denotes the company had a -0.0344 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Community Financial exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Community's Variance of 5.55, mean deviation of 0.8321, and Standard Deviation of 2.35 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.31, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Community are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Community is likely to outperform the market. At this point, First Community Financial has a negative expected return of -0.0858%. Please make sure to confirm First Community's jensen alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and price action indicator , to decide if First Community Financial performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
First Community Financial has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Community time series from 12th of March 2023 to 20th of February 2024 and 20th of February 2024 to 30th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Community Financial price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current First Community price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.24 |
First Community Financial lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Community pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Community's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Community returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Community has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Community regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Community pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Community pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Community pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Community Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Community's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Community pink sheet have on its future price. First Community autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Community autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Community pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Community Financial.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with First Community
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Community position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Community will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against First Pink Sheet
| 0.63 | TGNA | Tegna Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | BTCM | BIT Mining | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | AMZN | Amazon Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | USB-PH | US Bancorp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Community could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Community when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Community - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Community Financial to buy it.
The correlation of First Community is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Community moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Community Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Community can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Pink Sheet Analysis
When running First Community's price analysis, check to measure First Community's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Community is operating at the current time. Most of First Community's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Community's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Community's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Community to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.