First Community Financial Stock Price Prediction
| FMFP Stock | USD 14.58 0.58 4.14% |
Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Community hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Community Financial from the perspective of First Community response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Community to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Community after-hype prediction price | USD 14.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
First Community After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Community at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Community or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of First Community, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Community Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Community's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Community's historical news coverage. First Community's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.63 and 16.45, respectively. We have considered First Community's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Community is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Community Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Community Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Community is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Community backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Community, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.91 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.58 | 14.54 | 0.27 |
|
First Community Hype Timeline
First Community Financial is currently traded for 14.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.86. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.54. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on First Community is about 51.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.72. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.61. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Community Financial last dividend was issued on the 8th of December 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 22nd of May 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out First Community Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in First Pink Sheet, please use our How to Invest in First Community guide.First Community Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Community's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Community's future price movements. Getting to know how First Community's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Community may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VTYB | The Victory Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.96 | (0.94) | 4.41 | |
| CIZN | Citizens Holding | 0.11 | 3 per month | 0.97 | 0.17 | 2.53 | (1.76) | 9.52 | |
| WDFN | Woodlands Financial Services | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.72 | 0.03 | 1.50 | (1.66) | 9.15 | |
| SGBG | Signature Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 3.34 | (2.07) | 203.18 | |
| HCBN | HCB Financial Corp | (30.91) | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.28 | (0.16) | 4.33 | |
| ANDC | Andover Bancorp | (0.17) | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.01 | 2.16 | (2.32) | 8.04 | |
| MFBP | MF Bancorp | (0.17) | 14 per month | 1.04 | (0.02) | 2.28 | (2.34) | 5.87 | |
| EXCH | Exchange Bankshares | (0.17) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.50 | |
| ALBY | Community Capital Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.85 | (0.85) | 4.47 | |
| OAKV | Oak View National | (5.91) | 2 per month | 0.84 | (0.0005) | 2.18 | (1.13) | 6.83 |
First Community Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Community Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Community stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Community Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Community based on analysis of First Community hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Community's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Community's related companies.
Pair Trading with First Community
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Community position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Community will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First Pink Sheet
Moving against First Pink Sheet
| 0.61 | PBCRY | Bank Central Asia | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | IBN | ICICI Bank Limited Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | PBCRF | PT Bank Central | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | BKRKF | PT Bank Rakyat | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | HDB | HDFC Bank Limited Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Community could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Community when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Community - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Community Financial to buy it.
The correlation of First Community is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Community moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Community Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Community can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Pink Sheet Analysis
When running First Community's price analysis, check to measure First Community's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Community is operating at the current time. Most of First Community's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Community's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Community's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Community to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.