Conservative Allocation Fund Market Value
| GCAYX Fund | USD 11.64 0.06 0.52% |
| Symbol | Conservative |
Conservative Allocation 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Conservative Allocation's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Conservative Allocation.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Conservative Allocation on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Conservative Allocation Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Conservative Allocation over 30 days. Conservative Allocation is related to or competes with Kinetics Global, T Rowe, Pimco Global, Us Global, Federated Global, Blue Current, and Us Global. The fund, primarily through investments in the GuideStone Funds Select Funds , combines a greater percentage of fixed in... More
Conservative Allocation Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Conservative Allocation's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Conservative Allocation Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2265 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.57) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.9523 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.34) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3469 |
Conservative Allocation Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Conservative Allocation's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Conservative Allocation's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Conservative Allocation historical prices to predict the future Conservative Allocation's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0415 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0048 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2917 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Conservative Allocation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Conservative Allocation Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Conservative Mutual Fund to be very steady. Conservative Allocation secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the fund had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Conservative Allocation Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Conservative Allocation's Downside Deviation of 0.2265, risk adjusted performance of 0.0415, and Mean Deviation of 0.1621 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0249%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0293, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Conservative Allocation's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Conservative Allocation is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.71 |
Good predictability
Conservative Allocation Fund has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Conservative Allocation time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Conservative Allocation price movement. The serial correlation of 0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Conservative Allocation price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Conservative Allocation lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Conservative Allocation mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Conservative Allocation's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Conservative Allocation returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Conservative Allocation has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Conservative Allocation regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Conservative Allocation mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Conservative Allocation mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Conservative Allocation mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Conservative Allocation Lagged Returns
When evaluating Conservative Allocation's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Conservative Allocation mutual fund have on its future price. Conservative Allocation autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Conservative Allocation autocorrelation shows the relationship between Conservative Allocation mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Conservative Allocation Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Conservative Mutual Fund
Conservative Allocation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Conservative Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Conservative with respect to the benefits of owning Conservative Allocation security.
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