Aman Agrindo (Indonesia) Market Value
| GULA Stock | 348.00 4.00 1.14% |
| Symbol | Aman |
Aman Agrindo 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aman Agrindo's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aman Agrindo.
| 12/01/2023 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aman Agrindo on December 1, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aman Agrindo or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aman Agrindo over 360 days. Aman Agrindo is related to or competes with Dharma Satya, Saratoga Investama, Surya Esa, Elang Mahkota, and Sawit Sumbermas. More
Aman Agrindo Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aman Agrindo's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aman Agrindo upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (14.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.82 |
Aman Agrindo Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aman Agrindo's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aman Agrindo's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aman Agrindo historical prices to predict the future Aman Agrindo's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.21) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (1.56) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (2.21) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.28) |
Aman Agrindo Backtested Returns
Aman Agrindo secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.3, which signifies that the company had a -0.3% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Aman Agrindo exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aman Agrindo's risk adjusted performance of (0.21), and Mean Deviation of 2.75 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.11, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Aman Agrindo returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aman Agrindo is expected to follow. At this point, Aman Agrindo has a negative expected return of -1.5%. Please make sure to confirm Aman Agrindo's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Aman Agrindo performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.69 |
Very good reverse predictability
Aman Agrindo has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aman Agrindo time series from 1st of December 2023 to 29th of May 2024 and 29th of May 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aman Agrindo price movement. The serial correlation of -0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current Aman Agrindo price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 42.7 K |
Aman Agrindo lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aman Agrindo stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aman Agrindo's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aman Agrindo returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aman Agrindo has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aman Agrindo regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aman Agrindo stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aman Agrindo stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aman Agrindo stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aman Agrindo Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aman Agrindo's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aman Agrindo stock have on its future price. Aman Agrindo autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aman Agrindo autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aman Agrindo stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aman Agrindo.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Aman Agrindo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aman Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aman with respect to the benefits of owning Aman Agrindo security.