Harum Energy (Indonesia) Market Value
| HRUM Stock | IDR 1,125 5.00 0.44% |
| Symbol | Harum |
Harum Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Harum Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Harum Energy.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Harum Energy on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Harum Energy Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Harum Energy over 30 days. Harum Energy is related to or competes with Indo Tambangraya, Indika Energy, Adaro Energy, Akr Corporindo, and Vale Indonesia. PT Harum Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining and logistics activities in Indonesia More
Harum Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Harum Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Harum Energy Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.27 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.90) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.13 |
Harum Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Harum Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Harum Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Harum Energy historical prices to predict the future Harum Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.57) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4619 |
Harum Energy Tbk Backtested Returns
Harum Energy Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.17, which attests that the entity had a -0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Harum Energy Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Harum Energy's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.4719, standard deviation of 2.09, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.54, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Harum Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Harum Energy is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Harum Energy Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.34%. Please make sure to check out Harum Energy's maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Harum Energy Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.37 |
Below average predictability
Harum Energy Tbk has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Harum Energy time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Harum Energy Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current Harum Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 545.87 |
Harum Energy Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Harum Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Harum Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Harum Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Harum Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Harum Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Harum Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Harum Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Harum Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Harum Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Harum Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Harum Energy stock have on its future price. Harum Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Harum Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Harum Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Harum Energy Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Harum Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Harum Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Harum with respect to the benefits of owning Harum Energy security.